So according to you it seems that if the #1 is true than the #2 doesn’t need to be true? While your #2 is a restatement of my own post. C’mon, don’t just copy someone and then claim that my and therefore your statement isn’t true. It’s just basic logic.
Why does everyone think we will either collapse to 1000 or take out the ATH’s in two months? We could trade in a range for months or years. Nobody knows wtf is going to happen with Corona. What we do know- 1- Market had the longest uninterrupted bull run in history, 11 years. 2- PE’s were at upper limits of historic norms. 3- There was NO earnings growth over the last year, just PE expansion 4- The biggest up moves are in bear markets (last 3 Friday 3:30 rips) 5- anyone who thinks we bottomed on Friday, never traded a share of stock before 2010. 6- If you are #5 please listen to the guys on here who have been through this many many times already (Poopy, d08, Sprout, and a handful of other guys).
What? You claimed the economy had to "get back to where it was"--a nebulous statement and level. My #1 comment is one of the most basic tenets any investor or trader knows, but you attempted to defy it. #2 is simply saying once a crisis passes, the indexes can quickly regain ground, regardless if all company earnings or other measures (GDP, ISM Manufacturing, etc.) get back to their previous levels. Just admit you're wrong and quit digging a bigger hole. The fact 3 people (including a "guru") liked your asinine analysis is a contrary indicator, given the biases and cloudy thinking on this site.
The probability of the market being back at 3300 by months end is near zero. In order for that to happen the indices would have to go beyond stupid overbought territory for an extended period of time. By stupid overbought I mean that their RSI indicators would be beyond 82.5 for a week or longer, and I know that's never happened before for indices. Through out all this volatility, RSI indicators have been an almost perfect guide, and took almost all the guess work out of trading. I've done so well in the last three weeks that I thought about taking the rest of the year off,,,,,,,, for about 5 minutes. With great volatility comes great opportunity, up or down, I can take time off later. As for this coming Monday, hundreds of billions couldn't turn the market around, we'll find out in short order if trillions of dollars can. Another technical, the S&P closed basically right at the twenty % down marker of 2710. I attempted to re-enter my short position in the last three minutes of Fridays trading, the trade was blocked and I got "function temporarily unavailable", which has never happened to me before. Sellers have been in control since the middle of February and all the rallies except for one(the last 2 hours), have been in the last hour of trading. In yesterdays rally, 1450 dow points came in the last half hour.
If we don't recover by end of May, it will no longer be about Corona. By then, we will be in a full-fledged recession. BTW you forgot #7. 7- Stock markets look forward. Hence why traders suffer from incurable amnesia and why the market repeats the same error over and over and over.
Before all things Corona, so many people were so adamant that the market would never stop going higher. You know, that mantra, sell your mortgage and buy all the QQQ you can afford to grab? Sadly, even to this day, they believe we will reverse and go right back up to the ATH. Trump declared NATIONAL EMERGENCY for a reason and they believe the market will simply forget about Corona and shoot for the moon. It shows what a bunch of gullible noobs qua idiots they are. Obviously, what they don't know is that you can't friggin' sit on your ass and just dick around in a bear market as you can in a bull market.
I've already said a new ATH this month is ridiculous and even the end of April would probably be a world record. That said, it's possible it could happen later in the summer if Corona dies out (like SARS did in the summer) and we have a violent recovery. The market is forward looking and doesn't necessarily care if this causes a 3-6 month recession and upsets a few niche industries (like cruise ships) for a while. It's a weird crisis because it could turn into a nightmare or be like the common flu with unwarranted Y2K-type hysteria. If the latter case, investors/traders will say "now that was a stupid overreaction" and bring things back to the status quo in short order. Of course it could also end up being somewhere between between those two extremes.
Oh sure, I was expecting NQ to hit 10K before the most insane market in history. But it is what it is, and you adapt.