Break out your ol' dcf notes: this is all nothing more than a call on future earnings. Some thoughts: • Two things caused this de-valuation: the CoVID-19 and the Russo-Saudi oil upset. • Humans are a social species -- gathering together is instinctual. • The majority of world economic activity is directed towards humans gathering together. The whole "social-distancing" thing is counter-instinctual, and a bit of a chore to even conceive. But our traveling, our day-to-day consumption, our construction of facilities to gather together and consume -- all are impacted by this current imperative (or even, enforced rule) to stay apart. So: for as long as CoVID-19 commands a counter-instinctual, society-wide distancing, then our entire economic structure is crushed into a tiny sphere of groceries, paints and plumbing (reminds me of "toilet-paper, tunafish, and .22lr(s)" ) -- *that* portion of the economy (and of the financial markets) should do just fine. But for every week of which the CoVID-19 stays in the headlines, that is a week of $0 revenues for the majority of the market. And that will go directly towards the next earnings season: total f-ing disaster. What we have seen as a "crash" is no crash at all -- it is the real-time discounting of forward earnings, and the instant that the CoVID-19 picture changes, there will be a face-ripping Limit-Up surge in the markets. The Russo-Saudi imbroglio? "Pfffft." It's much broader than that -- Russia is re-engaged in a game which they could not afford to play 20 years ago, and they are budgetarily much worse off now, so while their re-engagement is a puzzle, their lifespan at the table is not: the Saudis have them by the short hairs, and despite the disastrous world-politique moves of The Kingdom over the last decade, they will seek to bring Syria, Iran/Hezbollah, and Russia into line with their wishes sooner than later, and this oil-price disagreement will disappear in a friendly little "Poof!" in a matter of a few weeks. The markets, of course, will re-value all petro-stocks in a similar swift wave. But think of it this way: if the CoVID-19 is 2/3rds of the current down-turn, and oil prices the other third, and 30 days will tell us a lot about both of them, then we're status quo for another week or two, then small buying for two weeks after that, and then watch the headlines for a r-r-r-r-R-R-R-RRRRIP upwards after that. Short-term? Buy HD (down -20%); sell CZR (down -50%) Next week-or-three? Sell HD; buy CZR. (or AAL or DIS or....)
"...views of the virus 'have evolved dramatically in recent weeks' as the outbreak has spread further around the world and fueled the worst stock-market sell-offs in decades, the bank's economists wrote..." The US economy could shrink by 2% in the first quarter and 3% in the second, JPMorgan projected, while the eurozone economy could contract by 1.8% and 3.3% in the same periods. "Financial markets' wild price swings and tumbling asset prices will also contribute to economic contraction over the next two quarters, according to JPMorgan." Financial conditions around the globe are "tightening sharply as perceptions of credit quality" across several assets deteriorate, the economists said. The risk of sovereign and corporate debt crises adds to the firm's already dire economic outlook. https://markets.businessinsider.com...onomic-july-market-jpmorgan-2020-3-1028994637
Anyone on this thread stating that we touch 3300 or get to NHs this year simply doesn’t trade. There is no way that you’ve remained solvent enough to do so.
Believing the market bottomed out is naive. Is this your first rodeo OP? We haven't even seen the scope of damage 2019-nCoV has done to companies. It's pure speculation. Once earnings come we will feel the full force of the collapse. Sure, we might see a few more big pops up but the fed is running out of juice and no amount of free money will make people buy companies whose supply chains are in shambles.
The more negative shit the news prints the faster this will be over. (more social distancing and less spreading). We will come out of this in good shape once summer rolls arounds. We should have a vaccine soon after. The big problem is Europe and China. It's coming full circle back to China and Europe is going to possibly go under.
Over here the roads are bare, people aren't even walking outside. But I bet they have toilet paper... Food prep is likely going to be the main method of transmission going forward, like TB Betty or whatever her name was.