Market recovery is not ridiculous after the swan event is under control. It is more of a matter of how long it will take. Earnings and economic growth expectations will.all come in due to 1Q and 2Q Corona hit. Will take a other Q to wash out the shit. Target June - Aug to be higher than we are now.....just wont know how much so sit back and enjoy the ride.
Is it me or is it clear who the bulls (bagholders) are in this thread. It's like they are trying to convince themselves more than anything. Banks and hedge funds can afford to ride this out. They don't care if it falls. The head of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund (the largest in the world) said that he didn't care about market corrections like Brexit because he was thinking on a ultra long term time horizon. They can afford it. You retail traders cannot. Somebody already beautifully pointed something out: "Do you really think we go from a Coronavirus situation that still has no end in sight not to mention a massive correction after an 11-year bull run, and then subsequently reverse and start and another bull run (i.e. recovery) after only a few weeks. The best case bagholders have is a slow bleed instead of the likely femoral artery bleed that is coming should this not have any sign of getting better in a couple weeks.
I went to cash in my wife's 401k on Feb 21. She had max matching on company funds which is free money, but the shares have dropped 20% since then. I'll get back to matching once the shares take another 10% shit and ride out any vola. You gotta be f*cking insane to think this is over. -GDP for at least two quarters. Imagine the YoY comps on AAPL, GOOGL, etc. The sheer number of bankruptcies that are going to hit the dry ship, freight, E&P, shale... holy shit! There are no immune sectors. New home sales will plummet 20-30%. Existing? LOL. The haircut on ANYTHING requiring points (over FHA) is going to lose at least 15%.
Obviously, you have your mind made up already about the market and how it "should" behave going forward--like everyone else. Well, I don't dispute the fact this market is hysterical. In fact, it has always been hysterical, even in good times. However, this market was long overdue for a correction, regardless of corona or not. I mean, 11 years of nonstop ATHs isn't exactly normal, is it? Hence, in my opinion, Corona was simply a shill, an excuse, and obviously a good one, for them to sell the market and clean house. You sounded so damn pessimistic just a month ago. Now you sound too damn optimistic. Do you not read the news? Italy, Spain, France, Germany. Czech...they're all shutting down. USA is slowly getting there. The world economy is now much bigger than when the Spanish Flu broke out. You truly think we'll only drop 30% and stop? Ludicrous.
Was anyone pricing in the China economic contraction projections, the true data of which will be released tonight at 10PM ET? Industrial production and retail sales y/y numbers? Limit down during overnight hours. The store closings and layoff are going to start to snowball, because people have the sniffles. Look at Nike, shutting down all stores. Hell, now people who had the virus and recovered cannot even shop at some places, so they can't spend money. This leads to more layoffs, which leads to less spending, more unemployment claims, etc etc etc.