Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by buzzy2, Apr 1, 2003.
How many points will jump the SP/ES if a US victory in Baghdad is announced?
I'll tell you in 2019.
follow the Saddam April Futures to determine that!
saddam.april03 futures going up today.
Still going up AH.
Contract BQty Bid Ask AQty Last Vol Chge
IRAQ.SADDAM.APR03 216 58 60 87 59 34.4k +9
IRAQ.SADDAM.MAY03 40 77 80 50 78 12.5k +2
IRAQ.SADDAM.JUNE03 50 86 88 154 88 26.0k +3
IRAQ.SADDAM.JULY03 150 91 94 10 93 74 +1
IRAQ.SADDAM.MAR03 Expired at 0 74.8k -60
does'nt it depend on how much the futures have rallied or dropped ahead of the so called victory?
did do a spikola tonight in 15 minutes
approx 6 up / 6 down in spoos and nazzy
I don't think anyone will ever announce a victory in Baghdad. After a few weeks and a few hundred dead American soldiers, the CENTCOM briefings will gradually shift from "We are within 50 miles of Baghdad" to "Who needs Baghdad as long as we control the oil wells". Or maybe they will keep "pounding" the city with their night time fireworks to -- what do they call it? -- "degrade" the republican guard.
But one thing is for sure, namely that Saddam will remain in power just like last time, so it will be quite hard for the Bush-regime to declare victory. Maybe if Bush loses the elections his successor will be able to declare victory by achieving peace with Saddam.
On the other hand, how do we know that the whole war is not being filmed in Hollywood? In that case anything is possible.
Trading is about making guesses with incomplete information, of course it depends on a lot of things, but the poll is asking for the expectation of the reaction to that event GIVEN THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE RIGHT NOW.
Of course the poll will not be valid when the US victory actually happens but it gives you people's bias RIGHT NOW and I find that useful for my trading RIGHT NOW, even when no anouncement has been made yet.
Yes, and the volume around 19:00 EST was about the same as in a slow lunch hour... Possibly speculators in Australia or other asian markets...
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