http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES large/small traders are really on the bullish side, while the 'commercial hedgers' are very short.... who are the commercials?
if they are fund managers, what make them different from 'large traders' or 'large speculators' (the red line in the COT chart) ??
that's not what I meant..... how does COT categorize certain funds as hedgers, vs certain funds as 'large traders' ?
I have had the same question. The answer I've come up with is that commercial parties are such entities that have necessary permanent exposure to the market (for example for dividends). Such entities are mainly funds such as pension funds and very bulky investment funds and banks. They may also be large corporations that hedge their own permanent equity positions (in themselves and other companies/competitors/takeover targets). This is basically the same answer MTE gave, except I dare speculate a bit as to who has the underlying exposure here. Non-commercial would be hedge funds and other relatively more nimble investment vehicles. Note that it's impossible for all groups to be bullish or bearish because it is a zero sum market (i.e. open short interest = open long interest). I would not immediately assume short = bearish or other way around. Also note that commercials are by far the larger piece of the market. Hence in order for them to effectively hedge their positions it is necessary for the other group(s) to be (seemingly) excessively long in the contract.