SP 500 Weekly Chart

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by myminitrading, Nov 25, 2006.

  1. So here we are with a bearish DOJI star. Is this a short term top? could be, theirs one problem next week is month end, from my experience money managers may want to push things back up next week.

    The set up is their, lets see if these bulls have any strength left. Even if it does sell off, the market is in a clear up trend on the weekly an has been for 3 years.

    It would take a close below 1200 on the weekly chart to turn this trend down, thats a long way away.
  2. Friday was a half-day...what historical effect on half days have candles produced? It does effect scans in regards to volume and RSI. I'm asking rhetorically as I'm revisiting this in my research over the weekend.
  3. iprph90


    in no way would i profess to know anything about TA. however, are you saying that the spx would have to dip 200pts in order to confirm that it is in a downtrend? i guess what i'm asking is do i have to wait that long to short this market?
  4. There's a hint on the weekly but the full set up isn't there yet. Shorts have a pretty good s/l point to work with now though (and it could once again be used for yet another blow off top - remember the triple top breakthrough at YM 12222? :D - by the longs too, if conditions are right for them). Here are the things I'm looking for in the next 2 weeks as a short (in order of time):

    * That we go down on Monday. If we finish positive at the close, I might actually close out or scale out. Big boys would've had a long weekend to think about where to take this thing, and if the market goes up again, chances are, it will again and again until who knows when. If we do finish down - and lower the better, I'll scale into my current shorts until we reach the daily trendline where I'll lighten my position until we actually break it.

    * Break of the daily trendline. That line has been guarding this up move since the July low. It's currently at 1387 on SP Cash. and conveniently, at around 12222 on YM. We've bounced off of it on 4 different occasions.

    * A long red line on the weekly after this week's doji. That would be a shooting star reversal set up, since this thread is about candle stick charting. Without it, shorts won't have much to work with.

    *Expect choppy sideways actions even if we go down a lot from here eventually. We've had a pretty strong uptrend action for the last I don't-know-how-long and this ADX will unwind in a rather lazy fashion imo.

    Just my 2 cents.

    PS iprph90, this business is about direction, not price.