I got stopped out 2-3 times before the move I anticipated took place. COVERSELY, I held onto the profits. The long at break of 86 is working. Stop is 1286 and target is 1291
Stopped out, +8pts on day. Moral of this story is to have slightly looser stops once were up nicely on the morning. Had we done so, we "coula woulda shoulda" netted 3 pts and be +10. Oh well. *pts is better than some, worse than others. This is now a consolidation day, not a resumption of the previous days stong trending day as we thought. I might short 1287 to 1286 for a quick pt. In fact, lets do so, .5 stop.
Taking 1 pt on consolidating days as it probes, fails and pulls back to the last support area can ussually net a point 80% opf the time. +9 pts on a day we misread as a trending day.
Hey Geeks, my first comment. Wow, fame for 15 minutes ... NOT! Thanks for stopping by this journal. Its not much, but the whole idea is having minimal draw downs. So far, so good. "Ya'all come back now", said Jed Clampit. Grin.
out for +1 pt, =10pts on the day. We called the Morning Trend. We called the bottom. We really sucked at calling the trend after that. Ya win some and loose some. Its now the last half hour. I'm ussually flat unless its been a HUGE trending day. +700 SPDRs minus costs = a better living than some. +2000 ES, less costs on "X trader" using Vinny at Global Futures (4.75 RT instead of 700 / month for THE MOST ROBUST trading platform on the planet) = a heck of a good living. After a month of carefully detailed trading, maybe folks will finially beleive ya can make a living day trading. When your right 80% of the time AND keep losses REALLY small ..... that is. (if it breaks 1291 in the last feew minutes, the dog better be hidding... GRIN.) RJ
I'm flat at =10pts on day as SPX is at 1289 ONLY TWO LOUSY pts from where I thought it would go to. The moral of the story is that big moves often happen after shorter term time frame buyers and selles have "gone home". THEN they move it up to where they wanted it all along. The key here is see the longer term pivot pt on a 3-5 year chart trend line. Once ya see them possitive 20 points off that trend line AND higher highs above the two weeks of consolidation, rest assured THEY are in controll of the market for a while. Once it gets to where the 1 year trend line is, then its a battle for the intermediate players to see who is in charge there. For us very short term guys, we stay small and nimble. A normal stop is 10% of the daily range and normal target is 30% of the daily range on an indraday swing trade, and 1 pt target, .5 to 1pt stop. This is not a mystery folks, this is only about bounces between areas where buyers and sellers battled it out before falling back and doing it all over again. In the price points BETWEEN those areas, the winner QUICKLY advances. In scalping on RANGEBOUND DYAS, You can "ussualy" tell who's winning and loosing based on lows getting higher (buyers holding ground) and then moving past the battle lines where seller assulted them from ... the top of a cup shape vs an upside down cup. Then the retreating sellers will be chased by the buyers to where the last battle line was. To "try" to make it simple look and the tops of the right side up and upside down "cups" as the next place a battle line is going to be drawn. These are often the congestion areas where price movement will slow, and battle lines once breached and reformed will now be RE USED by the opposiong side. Support really does become resistance one breached and vice versa. If your confused, just spend a year studing auction market theory and getting your butt kicked, you'll get it eventually. on TRENDING DAYS, just see what happend for the first half hour. wait for pull back to the Opening Range and ride like a cow boy till he sees a breach in his fence line, and THEN get off that horse. Beyond that for those two types of days, throw away ALL of your damn "indicators" that can only lag the real world decisions of buyers and sellers of differing time frames. THEY and THEY ALONE are your leading indicator, that and volume of what they DID ... not might have done. Then again, I might just be full of BS. Time will undoubtedly tell. As with any system, even a good one, it still ENTIRELY depends on discipline and money management. THE LOUSY TRADRER