... looking potentially explosive to upside here... COT is bullish, technicals look good. Fundamentals look good. Break-out appears imminent. All we need now is the weather to play along...
I am not sure I agree with you. There are huge carry out stocks from last year and demand has not been great. The crop is off to a very good start this year, 2 weeks ahead of the average crop cycle. If weather stays the way it is and soybeans end the season with trend line yield or slightly below trend line yield the carry out will be burdensome again. Further more these soybeans are gmo and they are going to need an extreme weather event to move the market. I agree with you that funds are ready to begin buy soybeans if there is even a hint of extreme weather as an inflation hedge. <a href="http://tinypic.com"><img src="http://i6.tinypic.com/1z67hpf.jpg" border="0" alt="Image and video hosting by TinyPic"></a>
OK, so maybe the fundamentals are not quite as good as I first indicated.... Looks like the bears had the most of it in the overnight session. Guess the weather must be helping them out. What do you think the impact of gmo will be long term? I'm sure the Chinese will continue to take it but good luck exporting gmo to Europe. If it aint organic then the public don't want it... Unless you sneak it in all the processed stuff....
Fundamentals are horrible for beans. Acres are high and carrout should have beans well under $5, long only funds are impacting that issue.