Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Cutten, Apr 8, 2004.

  1. Cutten


    Looking pretty toppy here. You had a classic "2b" top signal - a slight new intraday high on 5th April, which then reversed to close below the previous days low. Now today's action is another big range day soon after the first, and looking like closing near the lows.

    There are other ingredients for a high too - the market has moved a long way in a relatively short time, doubling since last summer, and the potential double top has occured after a small penetration of the key 1000 level. Top signals after the market has broken a key level are usually more reliable than if the market is nowhere in particular.

    980 is the key level here. If that level that goes, there is no real support until around 900-910 and then the next support is 780-800. That is significant downside risk.

    I would look to start trading the short side either on a rebound up towards 1025-30, or if the market breaks down below the 975-980 level.
  2. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Ive been short since 1030s. Beans are also getting pricey and farmers are gonna start feeding corn to the livestock instead. It is a classic 2b short for sure. Should see 950 easily and probably 900. In a year they will be back to 650.