Soybeans hit 1 year to date high of 14.52 overnight? More upside or do we begin to see a sell off? Seems with hard US weather now prices can only go higher?
1) Snow "recharges" the soil moisture content after it melts. 2) If soybeans trade like a "financial" commodity, they could continue rallying. 3) If soybeans trade like an "agricultural" commodity, it's tough to be bullish at these price levels. 4) Brazil will probably say stuff to "support" the market. Be careful.
Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean by 'financial' and 'agricultural' and what those implications are? Thanks.
Nazzdack, Have this feeling that corn bulls are going to use the agruement that melt will delay planting, more bean acres and less corn acres i.e. replay of 2008. Could keep support for new crop corn firm for some time. Maybe. open interest in most grains up substantially over past couple of days, money keeps pouring in even at these levels. Regards, lcoal
1) When trading like an "ag", it adheres to its own fundamentals more closely. 2) When trading like a financial, the "energy value" can overshadow the "food value" of the commodity. Commodity index funds can pile into the long-side of the market. Liquidity flows of money can buy into the market regardless of other factors. 3) Implications? Trends and volatility can become magnified. Trading still remains challenging.
1) That all makes sense. 2) Some of the open interest build-up may be from rolling out of March and going forward.