Soybeans

7/11 Beans New Highs today! see above chart.

 

Soy is being used inmany more products now. The consumer driven markets are shifting away from proccessed foods to more natural alternatives. Look in any store and they have the growing healthfood section with SOY products. I see soy's popularity growing for awhile. My gf in paticular loves the stuff, natural and allows her to stay slim. Thats anouther thing america is over wieght and as people try to fight that stigma more everyday they are going to be hitting the soy.

Just my 002.

Long Soy

 

Does that explain why it has gone up this time of year for almost 15 years?

 

so seasonal swings are NOT priced in already??

 

Risk premiums rise and fall each year (almost) like clockwork. Seasonality in prices compensates for seasonality in risk for several commodities.

Clue: It's the risk side of the equation that some are less eager to point out ...

 

From the CBOT website ... Summer Agricultural Trading Strategies, A Strategy for Every Opinion

 

Here is the link ... http://www.cbot.com/cbot/www/cont_detail/0,1493,10+24+109+12208,00.html

 

Commodities look very strong now but I still beleive that soybean is going to consolidate or revese.

Here is what I'm going to do:

Scenario 1: Soybean breaks-out above 653. I'll wait for a pullback at/around 644-646 to go long. Target: 705

Scenario 2: Soybean doesnot breakout above 653. Sell calls and suck the time value out of the options.

Scenario 3: Soybean moves lower and breaks down below 646. Short calls or short futures. Next target: 617.

Let's keep this thread more active.

 

Soybean futures ended weaker on Thursday after new contract highs were scored in most contracts on the day. Underpinning gains were strong weekly export sales numbers. Sales for both old and new crop soybeans came in at 259,000 tonnes, which was at the high end of trade expectations. The strong sales number combined with follow through buying from yesterday’s session to underpin gains on the day. However, late profit taking amid overbought price conditions took prices back off the days best levels.

This report is also available by e-mail (free)
jbarry@proedgeonline if anyone wants it.

 

Scenario 2 and 3 took place today. Soybean was unable to close above 653, so I'm bearish on July beans. I'd look to short any rally otherwise I'll sell 660 calls. Target is 617.

Long term I'm bullish on corn but I think it is overextended, I'd look for an opportunity to go long at/ around 246(dec corn).