Does anyone know why the November contract has had the most volume and # of trades the last few days.? It has been doing a lot more volume and a lot more trades have occurred in the Novemebr contract in comparison to the July contract. In addition, the Aug & Sept contracts have been pretty quiet. I can see a one day occurence happening (i.e. a large hedge or spec trade) but 3 days in a row. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
During this time of year when volatility is at its peak everyone trades new crop because that is where the action is at. Now after harvest they won't right away but in the latter part of the spring and in the summer new crop is the only thing to be trading.
You also have First Notice Day coming up on the July contract. Firist Notice day is tomorrow 6/29. November has been considered the front month for a couple weeks now.
In soybeans, August and September are known as "swing months". There could be some good opportunity there if any problems arise with the new crop. July-2007 trades without price-limits during delivery. It traded freely on Friday.
The problem is the 6-10 day forcast comes out 4 times a day. How retarded is that? It makes things so ridiculously crazy that any little change in the forcast and they just go wild then a couple hours later and the forcast changes a little more then they go the other way. Honestly though we could easily see $10+ beans if we recieve any kind of heat at all in august. With the low amount of planted acres this year a shift in yield of just a few bushels per acre can drastically change the look of things. And with sugar looking to take off on a bullish rampage there will be a huge acreage battle in brazil between beans and sugar. On the other hand a lot of producers are thinking about planting all or near all beans next year due to the recent fall in corn and strength in soybeans. Not to mention it is cheaper to plant beans than corn anyway so if they can lock in $9 beans in 08 why not. Plus any move over 10 bucks and you will see demand just shut off and acreage increase dramatically. Something to think about