Wanted to get some opinions on the recent action, namely the big rally yesterday and the retracement today. What do you think this means? Is it indicative of a longer-term rally or was it just some short covering? What do the fundamentals say? Where do you guys think we're heading over the next month?
I think we'll see corn to the 600-650 range within the end of october and beans around $14. I don't think there is any justification currently for a rally beyond that. I'm worried about a sell off in the dollar as bullish for commodities so I agree on a bull move over the next couple of months. I'm a volatility seller so i'm shorting puts in the ags and waiting for a run up in the grains to sell more calls.
drycleaner.... Today was simply a retracement after a huge run up in the beans...they've found support at 11....and as long as the dollar index is weaker, expect beans to rise at least up to 1250ish....today was an excellent buying opportunity....I got some at 1180...took some heat but now they are doing great! Look at the options trade today for the story...FC Stone out there putting on some nice bullish positions on corn, Citigroup, JPM and and Pimco also putting on some bullish positions, although they seem to be indicating a cap on corn at 7.00 for harvest '09. Either way..all of this action is bullish to the grains, beans included.
Thanks for the info, would you mind telling me where you found out about FC Stone's options? Thanks in advance.
Not that some people on ET aren't knowledgeable, but please tell me you're not going to make trading decisions solely based on something you read here......
drycleaner.... with the current broker I use, I can call them and, if the market isn't busy, they can put me in touch with one of their guys on the floor. Got to talk to him today, and thats what he told me. Also, I think you can get the info off the net at end of day, but not sure where....maybe somebody else knows?
The CBOT on their website lists a recap of the market action but it is very simple and doesn't keep much track of the option trades. When I worked for brokers in the grain options one duty was to keep a players card each day of major activity. Example Cargill sold 1400 SX 1500 calls. We'd copy it and give it to our large customers at the end of the day after all the brokers clerks had compared notes. I used to keep spreadsheets of it and could tell you who was what and how long at so many strikes. Many funds though and large hedgers go through multiple houses to trade. My father use to be a large crush trader and soy speculator for Bunge and they went through at least four different houses in addition to Produce their own clearing firm. To conclude.... the floor brokers are the best source of info for what is going on. I'm just not clear as to how much size one needs to trade to actually be put in touch with them.
caroy: Not sure how much size you have to trade to get a floor trader on the phone all of the time, but I can talk to them when the mkt is slow, and I don't generally put on that great of size at all.