Why is it constantly at a relative discount to March and July? Is there something special with this month?
1) Are you talking about "new crop" May in 2014 and 2015? You may be observing stale quotes and/or "goofy" settlement prices that may be "straightened out" the next day. 2) It might have something to do with the South American harvest pressuring May with respect to the adjacent months. :eek: 3) There may be some type of delivery quirk in the contract specifications that influences May compared to the other months.
Not stale quotes. Your explanation with SA soybeans sounds likely. It has been going on only for a few years which corresponds to SA becoming a major producer like the US, it wasn't the case 20 years ago but it is a constant behaviour now.