South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. expiated


    The answer to the above question is "no, I can't." The market is simply too herky-jerky and waiting out the bigger moves would require accepting a level of risk in the form of drawdowns served in percentages I can ill afford.

    However, I’m thinking perhaps I can still go for the “bigger wins” by taking maximum advantage of “pivot points” where the intra-day and/or day-to-day trends change direction. Looking at the market from that point of view, I see AUDJPY as having pivoted to the north on October 11th and 12th. It toyed with the idea of turning south yesterday, so the beginning of the current 24-hour market cycle would have been a perfect opportunity to go long when it again turned north. However, the structure is now such that I expect a pullback before it continues its northbound trajectory.

    AUDNZD pivoted north during the current round of trading sessions, and at 1.0959 has pulled back rather nicely. This is exactly what I was talking about, so I will be watching for the signal to go ahead and enter a long position that I will hopefully be able to remain in for a relatively healthy overall gain.

    AUDUSD is still bearish, but losing momentum. Nonetheless, if I were inclined to enter a short position, its current location at 0.7845 would be a justifiable level from which to do so.

    EURGBP pivoted to the north yesterday, and at 0.8928, looks inclined to continue heading in that direction.

    EURJPY pivoted to the north during the current round of trading sessions, but its current structure suggests to me that a significant pullback is in store.

    EURUSD pivoted to the north and should offer me another opportunity to see if I can pocket a bigger profit by getting in on the ground floor.

    GBPJPY also pivoted north, but in a major way that, once again, would seem too beg for a pullback.

    GBPUSD turned bearish on Monday. If it intends to continue heading south, 1.3199 might not be all that bad of a level from which to sell.

    USDCAD pivoted south at the beginning of the current round of trading sessions, but would have to pull back somewhat before I would feel comfortable joining in.

    USDCHF continues the trip north that it initiated on October 12th. It’s taking a short break, but at 0.9814, I’m keeping a watchful eye for any signs that it’s ready to get going again.

    USDJPY pivoted north on Monday, but made a big jump today, so I’m expecting it to pull back somewhat before it continues its bullish journey.
    #51     Oct 18, 2017
  2. expiated


    AUD Employment Change (SEP) took the weakening AUDUSD bearish sentiment and smashed it to smithereens.
    #52     Oct 18, 2017
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    My signals are suggesting that GBPUSD does NOT intend to continue heading south. If true, 1.3205 should offer me another opportunity to get in on the ground floor. (AUDNZD worked out very nicely!)
    #53     Oct 18, 2017
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    Thar she blows!

    #54     Oct 19, 2017
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    I could obliviously be wrong, but this looks to me like a pretty good level from which to enter a long position...

    #55     Oct 19, 2017
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    I wrote that the structure of AUDJPY was such that I expected a pullback before it continued its northbound trajectory. That pullback has indeed manifested, but a continuation to the north has yet to make an appearance.

    I got the signal I was looking for to buy AUDNZD, but the pair climbed much, much higher than I was expecting. It can, of course, do what it wishes, but structurally speaking, at 1.1197 it has no more room to rise, so I will interpret a fall below 1.1185 as a sell signal.

    AUDUSD turned bullish toward the end of yesterday’s New York session, and in fact, I entered a long position this morning and watched as my take-profit target was hit just a few minutes later.

    I wrote that at 0.8928 EURGBP looked inclined to continue heading north, and it is now at 0.8979.

    I said that EURJPY’s structure suggested to me that a significant pullback was in store, and in fact, it fell all the way down to around 132.46.

    I thought EURUSDshould offer me another opportunity to see if I could pocket a bigger profit by getting in on the ground floor,” and that’s just what it seems to be doing.

    With respect to GBPJPY, I said it too seemed to be begging for a pullback, and it fell all the way back down to about 147.88. I would enter a long position if it would pull back to around 148.23 (since it now looks ready to continue north again) but I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't give me the chance.

    I wrote that 1.3199 might not be all that bad a level from which to sell GBPUSD, and it did manage to get down to around 1.3140, but it turned bullish toward the end yesterday’s New York session, then bearish again during the London session, and now wants to be bullish once again. The pair just can’t seem to make up its mind!

    Bearish USDCAD was neutral for a while, but now looks like it would like to head north.

    USDCHF turned south during the London session.

    I wrote that I was expecting USDJPY to pull back somewhat before it continued its bullish journey, and indeed, it dropped all the way back down to about 112.29, but the return trip north is still waiting.
    #56     Oct 19, 2017
  7. expiated


    Sometime next week OANDA should be finished processing my initial deposit so I can switch over from trading an intraday scalping-like strategy I’ve used successfully in demo mode (arguably since November 1915, but most certainly since the summer of 2016) to trading a live account.

    However, due to the minuscule size of my starting balance, if I could reap 20 to 30 pips of profit at a time as opposed to only 5 to 10, this would be my preference.

    I am therefore continuing an effort to use my knowledge in an attempt a transition from my tried and true system to one that is three to four times more profitable without compromising any reliability or consistency, which is why I am saving these notes to refer to next week in case I forget any of my thoughts.

    AUDJPY went bullish October 12th, took a break on the 18th, and resumed a northbound trajectory the next day. But that seems to be turning over at present and might offer an opportunity to get in on the ground floor of a fresh bearish move, except that the overall daily trend is bullish—so better to sit on the sidelines and watch for now, and if price actually does turn south, get in on the start of a fresh leg to the north when the pair establishes the foot of a new upward thrust.

    Structurally speaking, AUDNZD has more reason to fall than rise. Another 30 pips and it will be pushing statistical resistance, requiring it to fight for every inch of ground as it slowly rides the crest. A fall to around 1.1160-1.1180 would be a much more favorable level from which to enter a long position.

    AUDUSD turned bearish on the 16th, bullish of the 18th, and bearish again today. But the overall daily trend is still a arguably bullish, and at 0.7816, its structure is such that it makes sense to watch for price to betray a reversal north for entering a long position for at least 10 pips profit.

    EURGBP turned south (bearish) today. But structurally, it makes sense to watch for price to evidence an intention to turn north, and pick up 10 or so pips profit from a long position—especially since the overall daily trend is neutral.

    EURJPY is still bullish after turning north on the 18th, so it makes sense to enter long positions each time price pulls backed 10 to 20 pips.

    EURUSD turned bullish two days ago, but went bearish again today. The overall daily trend is also slightly bearish. Nonetheless, in terms of its structure, waiting for an intraday swing north for a few pips profit as it bounces off statistical support looks more rational than trying to join a downtrend at this level.

    GBPJPY’s overall daily movement is a tiny bit bullish, but essentially neutral, so at 149.613 a hook south, if and when it happens, has a very good chance of offering up at least about 30-pips profit

    Given that GBPUSD’s overall daily trend is slightly bearish, and that there exists the current appearance of consolidation, what looks like an approaching turn south, if it happens, should offer a pretty nice opportunity to pick up more than a couple dozen pips profit.

    USDCAD looks overextended to the top side. Enter a short position if and when it begins acting like it wants to fall.

    USDCHF turned bearish yesterday and went back to being bullish today. Structurally speaking however, there is probably more than a tiny amount of pressure on it to come back down somewhat, so that is what I will be looking for it to do.

    USDJPY it has been bullish for the last four days. The structure is right for a pullback, but if nothing changes, the best trade opportunity will occur afterward, as the intraday trend turns north again.
    #57     Oct 20, 2017
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    That ain't happenin' given that AUDJPY gapped up above 88.95 at the start of this week's open.
    #58     Oct 22, 2017
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    EURGBP is being very stubborn about even giving me a measly 6 pips!

    #59     Oct 23, 2017
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    AUDUSD Sell Signal...


    GBPJPY stopped me out. I executed the trade based on position and overall trend. The next time I short the pair it will be based on the intraday trend. I'm hoping that this will prove to be more reliable.


    What the...?

    I'm hoping my live account with OANDA is going to be more accurate than this demo account with Ally Invest and lock in my gains as soon as my take-profit targets are hit!
    #60     Oct 24, 2017