South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. expiated


    QUESTIONS (Answered?):

    No, it appears that AUDJPY is not reversing to the north after all.

    AUDNZD did bounce off the upper region of that resistance zone, but no matter. There is still every indication that the pair has now turned bullish.

    At 131.92, I expect to see EURJPY bounce higher at some point (though of course, this doesn't mean that it will), but the overall trend of the pair nonetheless remains noncommittal at the moment from my point of view.

    Thankfully, EURUSD hit my take-profit target, but I'm still not convinced yet that it is going to continue on the southbound trajectory it initiated back around September 22nd.

    USDJPY is the only trade that has refused to cooperate with me, and in fact, it is now "telling me" that its bias has changed from bullish to bearish. Accordingly, I have lowered my take-profit target to just five or so pips above my entry level (which was hit as I was typing this post).

    With the above development, I am now out of all of my positions with a profit of from five to twenty pips.
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2017
    #41     Oct 5, 2017
  2. expiated



    The "bounce to the north" I was expecting from EURJPY is now officially over, with the pair having climbed as high as about 132.75. At the moment it seems more bearish than bullish, but I still fail to see any clear indication as to which direction the asset will ultimately be headed next week.

    As for EURUSD, it does now look like it will continue its bearish ways, and in fact, I have short the pair at 1.1728 with a take-profit target of 1.1690.

    Yesterday I wrote that USDJPY was "telling me" that its bias had changed from bullish to bearish, but today I'm no longer so sure. I will have to adopt a "wait and see" attitude for the time being in that the pair seems a bit ambivalent about committing to either direction.
    #42     Oct 6, 2017
  3. expiated


    I know I can pile up winning trades 5 to 10 pips at a time with an 80% to 90% success rate using my current chart setup, which I will call my day-to-day view. But I want to see if I can increase my profit-per-trade exponentially by reconciling what I see via my tried and true system with a new and untested setup which I’m calling my bird’s eye view.

    So here's my plan...

    AUDJPY has crossed north of a down sloping day-to-day trend, so previously I would have been looking for an opportunity to short the pair. However, I’d better wait until I have solid confirmation before doing so in that my bird’s eye view is showing me the completion of at least half of a bearish leg down…so that what I’d REALLY like to is go long when priced initiates the next leg up—probably somewhere between where it is now (87.81) and approximately 86.33.

    My bird’s eye view shows AUDNZD as having lost momentum over the last five days, but has yet to evidence any Bona fide sign that it will actually turn south. The day-to-day trend is definitely bullish, so I am inclined to enter a long position the moment the pair gives even a hint of an intention to continue its northward trajectory.

    AUDUSD is in the same situation except that, structurally speaking, it appears to be at the BOTTOM of a bearish leg down from a bird’s eye view. So regardless of what the day-to-day chart suggests about it being overbought in a bearish market, I’m going to wait for confirmation of a turn to the north on the longer-term chart and then buy the asset hoping for at least 100 pips profit.

    EURGBP has had six days of consolidation, but technically, is still bullish in both contexts, so currently it is all “buy” for me with respect to this asset if and when the time is right to pull the trigger.

    Going long is the only option with respect to EURJPY, especially following any kind of pullback.

    EURUSD is currently bullish, but down from where it was back on August 29 and September 8, and is structured so that I would not be surprised to see it rejected at 1.2070 or even before then. Nonetheless, I am currently long the pair with a take-profit target of 1.1894.

    GBPJPY is currently bearish, but it looks suspicious, so I’m not doing anything here until I get agreement from both my day-to-day and bird’s eye view that the pair has initiated a new trend to the north, at which point, I will enter a long position.

    GBPUSD is the same as GBPJPY except that it looks even closer to being ready to initiate a reversal to the north.

    My bird’s eye view suggests that USDCAD initiated a brand new leg south three days ago, and the day-to-day trend appears to be rolling over, so I’m going to enter a short position with a take-profit target of 1.2263—an ambitious 150+ pip gain.

    USDCHF is in a similar situation except that, as of yet, there is no confirmation of a southbound reversal on the bird’s eye view. Moreover, it ran into resistance in the area of 0.9445 and might therefore be finished forming new lows, so I’m going to sit on the sidelines with respect to this pair.

    USDJPY has initiated a new bearish leg down on the bird’s eye view, so I’m thinking it might not be unreasonable to expect to pick up at least 150+ pips profit on the southbound journey with respect to this pair as well.
    #43     Oct 12, 2017
  4. expiated


    So far I'm not satisfied with applying what works for me in the Forex market to the equity market, but with nothing better to do, I want to see how the following perform in the next month or so...

    ScreenHunter_6571 Oct. 12 09.54.jpg
    #44     Oct 12, 2017
  5. expiated


    HIMX - October 11, 2017: $9.55
    Today - $9.58 0.03 (0.31%)

    EBAY - October 11, 2017: $38.31
    Today - $38.09 0.22 (0.57%)

    MRK - October 11, 2017: $63.78
    Today - $63.83 0.05 (0.08%)

    CUDA - October 11, 2017: $22.65
    Today - $22.17 0.48 (2.12%)

    GPRO - October 11, 2017: $9.63
    Today - $9.58 0.05 (0.52%)
    #45     Oct 13, 2017
  6. expiated


    My new bird's eye view setup would have saved me from falling prey to an apparent pullback that might actually turn out to have been a genuine upward reversal. I'm simply waiting for confirmation of a new bullish up trend from the longer-term chart now.

    Too bad because I would have liked for this to have happened at a lower level so price would have had more room to rise.

    ScreenHunter_6573 Oct. 13 07.09.jpg
    #46     Oct 13, 2017
  7. expiated


    The time to pull the trigger is further away now than it was when I wrote the above forecast. My bird's eye view setup is still bullish, but my day-to-day setup has turned bearish. I will therefore need to wait for them to agree with one another before doing anything. At this time however I see no need to revise any of my other forecasts.
    #47     Oct 13, 2017
  8. expiated


    AUDNZD is being stubborn about heading toward my take-profit target, but AUDUSD has turned to the north as anticipated. The Euro pairs have stalled, but I've yet to see any good reason to suspect they might have any kind of inclination to turn south. USDCAD is also being stubborn about heading toward my take-profit target, and I'm still waiting for bearish confirmation from USDCHF, but USDJPY is making progress to the south as expected.
    #48     Oct 13, 2017
  9. expiated


    GBPJPY is day-to-day bullish, but I'm still waiting for bird’s eye view confirmation. GBPUSD's new bullish trend has been confirmed, so it's time for me to enter a long position.

    #49     Oct 13, 2017
  10. expiated


    These too...

    ScreenHunter_6582 Oct. 15 08.16.jpg
    #50     Oct 15, 2017