South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. expiated


    When GBPUSD hit my take-profit target (I entered a short position at around 1.3428) it freed up some margin so that I was finally able to go long USDCAD, which suffered a temporary setback, but finally succumbed to the trend during the last couple of hours.

    ScreenHunter_6461 Sep. 29 07.11.jpg
    #31     Sep 29, 2017
  2. expiated


    EURGBP is acting as if it might have had its fill of heading south, so next week I will be looking for an opportunity to go long near the foot of a new bullish overall day-to-day trend:

    #32     Sep 29, 2017
  3. expiated


    I'm currently long both AUDCHF and USDJPY, but looking at the four-hour charts, the former appears to have just initiated a reversal to the south and the latter has pretty much flattened out. If they both turn bearish I might need a bit of luck just to exit my positions at break even.

    ScreenHunter_6468 Sep. 30 01.21.jpg
    #33     Sep 30, 2017
  4. expiated



    As of the last week of September, AUDJPY has turned from bullish to bearish, so look to enter a short position if and when price bounces off resistance at or above 88.46.

    AUDNZD is still bearish, so look to enter a short position if and when price resumes a southbound trajectory after pulling back anywhere above 1.0880.

    AUDUSD is still bearish also, so look to enter a short position if and when price resumes a southbound trajectory after pulling back anywhere above 0.7858.

    EURGBP looks like it is initiating a brand new trend to the north. If this is true, you might be able to enter a long position anywhere and reap some significant profit simply by remaining in the trade until the pair turns bearish once again.

    If EURJPY has truly turned south (as it appears to have done) then 132.83 is arguably a reasonable level from which to enter a short position, though 133.28 would be more ideal.

    Again, unless EURUSD decides to give up its bearish sentiment, one could argue that 1.1811 is a reasonable level from which to enter in short position, though 1.18838 would be more ideal.

    If GBPJPY ultimately decides that it really does want to turn south, it will be all profit from 150.63 for the foreseeable future, though somewhere above 151.19 would be a more ideal entry point.

    Ideally, GBPUSD needs to pull back above 1.3430 to offer a higher-probability entry point for a short position.

    USDCAD needs to drop down below 1.2450 to offer a higher-probability entry point for a long position, but there is a good chance it will simply continue to push higher without doing so.

    You are already long USDCHF and will be lucky to get out of the trade at break even.

    You are already long USDJPY, which is currently in consolidation and might go either way. Whether you can squeeze out a profit or will have to settle for simply trying to break even remains to be seen.
    #34     Sep 30, 2017
  5. expiated


    I lowered my take-profit target, so I got out of this trade just 3 pips above break even (while I wasn't looking). Too bad, because I could have been looking at a minimum of 10 pips profit instead, but at least I didn't have to eat a loss.


    Whether or not I can do the same regarding my USDCHF position remains to be seen.
    #35     Oct 1, 2017
  6. expiated


    Thank the Lord, I was able to get out of this trade without having to eat a loss as well.

    #36     Oct 2, 2017
  7. expiated


    This is my last journal entry in that I have verified for myself that my approach to forecasting the Forex market is valid and reliable. Virtually all of the currency pairs I watch have moved in the direction I indicated before the start of the week, though only AUDJPY pulled back enough to provide me with a good entry level.

    EURGBP let me in at 0.8804 to begin riding it north, as I'd hoped. I wrote that USDJPY could go in either direction, and since it decided to continue heading north, it kindly saved me from incurring a loss. USDCHF let me break even as well, as I'd also hoped, but has not continued to climb any higher, which I would not have expected it to do.

    As things continue to unfold, I have no doubt that I will eventually get the pullbacks I need to execute trades at what I view as optimum high-probability entry levels, so I will simply be patient and wait for those opportunities to present themselves. The bottom line is this short journal has convinced me that my "signs of the times" trading philosophy is one that I should continue to rely on going forward.
    #37     Oct 2, 2017
  8. expiated


    I saw signs that USDCHF was turning bearish, but if that was ever really the case, it changed its mind and continued to head north, which is not so surprising seeing as how USDJPY never really looked back and USDCAD never even sneaked a peek. Everything else is unfolding as forecast.

    Since I've yet to get the pullbacks I desire, most of the trading I did today was a bit of scalping during the "dead" periods...

    ScreenHunter_6499 Oct. 02 20.56.jpg

    ...though I did go long EURGBP once again when it came back down to 0.8839 and am not willing to settle for a single handful of pips when it comes to this pair).


    A number of my stops during the scalping were not at all professional, but I didn't want to hang around to manage the trades, yet didn't want to get bounced out of any positions either seeing as how I felt confident about my take on the directions prices would ultimately be heading--so anyone wishing to disparage me on these grounds will have plenty of ammunition with which to do so. Have a blast!
    #38     Oct 3, 2017
  9. expiated


    As long as I've been using MT4, it wasn't until this morning that I realized how one goes about printing out a report. Duh!!!

    ScreenHunter_6513 Oct. 04 10.30.jpg

    I traded live during the four years I lived in the Middle East, but since returning to the U.S.A., I could no longer access my former brokers, so I've simply been developing my system using demo accounts. Now that it's essentially completed its evolution, I'm planning to take a hundred bucks that are supposed to be released to me on the 25th of this month and drop them in my OANDA account to begin trading live once more--only this time with a fully developed winning strategy.

    That means that this is the last month I will have to experiment with milking as much of a daily return out of such a tiny trading account as possible. If I can grow the account exponentially however, hopefully it won't be tiny for long.
    #39     Oct 4, 2017
  10. expiated



    At 88.48 AUDJPY looks like it’s on the cusp of turning north, and since it’s been bullish for the last four or five months, I’m going to wait a day or two to see if it really is reversing upward.

    Technically, AUDNZD is still bearish overall, but it’s been climbing north for the last three to five days. However, at 1.0960 it’s back up to where it bounced off resistance back on September 25th and 26th, so if it’s going to maintain its overall downward trajectory, there might be a lot of profit to reap between where it is now and where it is ultimately headed.

    Since AUDUSD is still bearish overall, so it might very well turn out that 0.7861 is not too shabby a level from which to enter a short position, though I would be more comfortable with 0.7876.

    EURGBP has been consolidating for a couple of days, so I would expect it to break to the north at any time.

    EURJPY looks like it is switching from a bearish to a bullish sentiment, so I’m just going to observe for the time being.

    I’m already short EURUSD, so I hope it’s not in the process of changing its bias from bearish to bullish.

    The cable pairs (GBPJPY and GBPUSD) remain bearish so that I’m looking to enter short positions with the next pullbacks.

    I’m already long USDCAD.

    I continue to enter long positions with the occurrence of USDCHF and USDJPY pullbacks.
    #40     Oct 4, 2017