If the pair DOES decide to take an extended trip south, it will have to begin fighting with support at 0.9912.
But the pair has been headed north ever since the end of March, so it becomes a strong buy (possibly) at 112.78, or even more so at 112.31.
On Friday I expected to see AUDJPY and AUDUSD to turn north, but they did not follow through. They were at a decision level and had much more room to rise structurally than to fall. But that does not negate the fact that there is still a bit of room below, and at this point, there is no denying that they are both presently bearish. (Statistically speaking, if AUDUSD should happen to drop as low as 80.39, the amount of pressure compelling it to rise should be astronomically intense!) CADJPY turned north on Friday, as anticipated. It was a mistake (a bit premature) to count on EURAUD heading south from 1.5781, as the newly added moving average clarifies. Nonetheless, the numbers suggest it will be under great pressure to turn south should it climb as high as 1.5897, and astronomical pressure to do so at 1.5983. The currently bullish, EURGBP has been more-or-less range bound for perhaps a little more than two weeks. Until it changes this pattern, bullish or not, 0.8962 is a neighborhood from which to sell, and 0.8851 is an approximate level from which to buy. EURJPY appears to be sidewinding its way nowhere. At this time, I have no interest in fooling around with this pair. EURUSD is slightly bullish at the moment. If it intends to remain so, Friday’s closing rate of 1.1374 might have been a nice spot from which to enter a long position. Unless it begins trending, GBPJPY is a buy around 142.90 and a sell around 144.92. Similarly, GBPUSD is a buy around 1.2676 and a sell around 1.2852. Having reached a decision level on Friday, I was thinking NZDJPY would turn north, but for the time being at least, it has turned south instead. The same is true of NZDUSD. USDCAD turned south Friday, as anticipated. USDCHF is still decidedly bearish, so the next pullback should present a nice opportunity to enter a short position. USDJPY is not trending strongly at all. In fact, the pair looks very ambivalent.
The last four-hour EURGBP candlestick formed in the bearish trend zone. However, this is a region of extreme deviation, so it is up to the upcoming candlesticks to establish whether this was a temporary foray into the outermost limits—to be immediately corrected with a reversal—or the beginning of a pronounced leg downward lasting several days. Also, the last GBPUSD four-hour candlestick has broken to the outside of what might be considered the top of a “price anomaly channel.” Consequently, the monitoring of lower time-frame charts might very well reveal an opportunity to realize a few pips profit by shorting the pair at the right moment.
Due to other projects that have impeded on my trading activity over the past few months, not to mention my having finalized the setup I use for manual trading, I am now making a concerted effort to establish an automated trading system to take over intraday trading on my behalf. I have designed two configurations based on the same principles but having different settings/parameters, both of which I believe should work and therefore hope to test within the next week to see if this is so, and if true, to determine which of the pair is most profitable.
The subsequent EURGBP candlesticks said, "Yeah, we are committed to heading lower!" And GBPUSD did indeed provide me with an opportunity to realize a few pips profit by shorting the pair at the right moment. It offered two more opportunities to do the same thing subsequent to the first, but I was not monitoring the pair to take advantage of the range-bound cycles. It now looks like it is abandoning its bullish sentiment altogether (if only temporarily).
Thanks to recent work I was doing to create an MT4 expert advisor (EA), I have now essentially completed the process of closely synchronizing/harmonizing my 1-hour chart setup with that of my 5- and 1-minute charts. I have identified what are relatively close matches in the lower time frames of what I refer to as the “instantaneous moving averages” on my one-hour charts, which I anticipate will be extremely valuable with respect to the precise timing of position entries and exits—especially following reversals in the intraday trend.
I have now synchronized my 15-minute chart setup with my one-hour chart instantaneous moving average as well. Having done so, I think the 15-minute time frame is probably the best to use for making forecasts, which I was planning to do right now for each of the currency pairs I follow. However, the fact of the matter is that the Forex market is simply too dynamic (from my perspective) to make this worthwhile any longer. The 15-minute setup includes what I call my global (day-to-day) trendline and the general overall intraday trend line, which are useful in terms of establishing context and which do play a role in influencing trade decisions (not pictured in the attached image). However, I have come to believe that none of the information provided by longer-term moving averages is actionable until one drills down to the moving average that corresponds with the one-hour instantaneous trend line, in whatever time frame a trader happens to be analyzing price action. If I want to walk away with a profit every day and virtually eliminate any kind of drawdown, this is where I have to “live” as a trader. This is where I now live on my synchronized charts...
On Friday it looked to me like USDCAD might wish to cease the downward trajectory it began last Sunday or Monday, so I will be watching to see if it continues to climb from an apparent 1.3290 support level. I will also be checking to see if CADJPY heads off in a new southbound direction, or if it resumes its former path northward.