Thanks to Numerical Price Prediction today my average profit trade was six times my average loss trade. Deuteronomy 8:17-18
I was trying to trade off of 15-minute charts using the "numerical price prediction" methodology, but wasn’t getting good results. In the process of analyzing why that was the case, I ended up discovering how my chart setup could be simplified, which was a nice incidental benefit/side effect. I also came to the conclusion that attempting to transfer the system to higher timeframes—even 5-minute charts—was simply not practical. After returning to one-minute charts using the simplified setup, I was once again able to attain the kind of consistency I try to demand from whatever techniques or strategies I utilize…
It looks like another plus with the Numerical Price Prediction system is that it can potentially empower traders to milk a profit out of the market even during periods of low liquidity…
I wrote the above statement perhaps a couple of days ago, but it simply is not true! The last six trades I recorded below (all successful) were based on 15-minute charts. I realized this morning that the setup I was using previously was lacking one key longer-term trend line/moving average. Once that was added, it put all the other indicators comprising my 15-minute setup in proper context/perspective, and from that point on, the likelihood of making accurate market forecasts using 15-minute charts was increased exponentially!
As I gain confidence and competency in the use of 15-minute charts, I will be increasing my expectations in terms of the amount of profit I will be seeking per each trade...
On September 24, 2017 I wrote that I was starting this journal to assess my proficiency with respect to making Forex market forecasts. At this point however, I am relatively comfortable with the amount of validity I’ve judged to be present in the manner I now construct and interpret my charts, so I will therefore be using this thread going forward simply as a convenient place to record my thoughts without taking up any more space on my laptop, while simultaneously ensuring they are available of me anytime, anywhere, provided I have Internet access. (If I don’t have access, it doesn’t matter because I won’t be able to trade anyway.) That said, from a monthly perspective, Tuesday through Thursday AUDUSD was, in my eyes, pushing the limits of what I call statistical support, so I was not surprised to see it form a long green daily candlestick on Friday. In fact, if the rate continues to climb at the start of next week, I will be forced to conclude that the pair has reversed its day-to-day sentiment from bearish to bullish and will therefore primarily be looking to enter long positions. EURGBP has been range bound for a month or longer and, if this is going to continue, presently has more room below than above. (I calculate significant statistical resistance as being located somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.8821.) From a monthly perspective EURJPY just turned slightly bullish. From a daily point of view, it’s still technically bearish, but will turn bullish immediately if it continues to climb at all at the start of next week. EURUSD is still technically bearish from a monthly perspective, but will probably be adopting a bullish day-to-day bias if it continues to climb at the start of next week. GBPJPY has been climbing for three days, but it is still technically bearish. GBPUSD is in the same situation as EURUSD. USDCAD is in the exact opposite situation as AUDUSD. The pair is crazy bullish though, so being nimble and flexible is going to be extremely important if the pair continues to fall, with any subsequent trades depending on whether the pair reverses direction to begin climbing once more, or continues sinking, pulling the trend down into a full-fledged bearish reversal. A continued drop in USDCHF’s rate at the start of next week will probably constitute a reversal in bias from bullish (due to a wicked climb on June 14th) back to bearish (which would kind of make what happened on the 14th somewhat of a fluke). USDJPY is day-to-day bearish and is at a decision point from a monthly perspective, with the longer-term trend remaining bullish if the rate bounces off of 109.98, or joining the bearish daily sentiment if the rate falls below this level.
From the perspective of my 60-miniute chart setup, EURJPY is already day-to-day bullish. The same is true of EURUSD and GBPUSD. Above 145.86, GBPJPY will also enter bullish territory. A continued drop in USDCHF’s rate at the start of this week will definitely constitute a reversal in bias from bullish back to bearish.
I was looking at weekly charts in comparison with my daily-chart setups this morning thinking I might be able to expand my Numerical Price Prediction system even further. Unfortunately, none of the nine foreign currency pairs I am actively trading at the moment were properly structured for me to begin testing my theory except for one: USDCHF. I will therefore be looking to short the pair, currently at 0.9881, for somewhere around 100 pips worth of profit.
My view of this pair is exactly the same as my take on EURUSD. Namely, though GBPUSD is still technically bearish from a monthly perspective, I believe it has probably adopted a bullish day-to-day bias, and I therefore entered a long position.