It’s almost guaranteed that I will sell NZDUSD as soon as I get confirmation of a Bona fide reversal to the south.
I’m now “hearing rumblings” that this might not simply be a temporary pullback, but could possibly constitute the initial formation of a full-fledged reversal from a bearish to a bullish bias, so I will not be entering a short position after all.
I was thinking I would buy NZDUSD after it turned south, but the reversal has been so pronounced that it calls into question whether the pair was really trying to change its sentiment from bearish to bullish after all. Since it is now unclear as to which way NZDUSD truly wants to go, the prudent thing to do at the moment is remain on the sidelines and observe. On the other hand, CADJPY appears to be offering a better opportunity at the moment...
Yep, NZDUSD is still bearish. Had it reversed to the south before heading so high yesterday, I would have entered a short position. But the climb was so dramatic, there was reason to believe the pair might keep going. As it turns out, it obviously did not.
On Friday I coded a brand new indicator that I personally think of as my “Deuteronomy 8:18A Trigger Line Envelope” which, praise be to Yahweh, evidences signs of being so spectacularly awesome that this morning I decided to see if I could apply the same principles to how I quantify the day-to-day trend. The black line pictured above is the simple moving average I have come to regard as the best—most accurate and reliable—gauge for representing the daily trend. The purple line is the new fast trend line I created this morning based on the same principles as my Trigger Line Envelope, and the reddish-pink indicator is the new slow, but most trustworthy, daily trend line. The lines are squiggly because they are generated from only a sampling of data collected at regular intervals in order to save/conserve memory, but they nonetheless trace a much smoother pathway than most of the free and commercially available moving averages. I have circled three instances in which the simple moving average I have always depended on in the past, the best measure I had available at the time, would have suggested to me that the day-to-day trend might have been reversing direction, instances in which my new proprietary trend lines would have warned me that no, this probably was not true. Consequently, going forward I will be using these two new graphic chart elements to confirm/verify when and were apparent wholesale reversals in the day-to-day trend are actually taking place.
NOTES TO MYSELF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK ON MARCH 4, 2018: AUDJPY turned bullish during the final hours on Friday. Enter long positions on pullbacks for the time being. AUDUSD began Friday as bullish, then turned bearish, and is now bullish again. Stay away for now! CADJPY turned bullish during the final hours on Friday. Enter long positions on pullbacks for the time being. CHFJPY is bullish at the moment, but only slightly, and since it has been headed south overall, I don’t really trust it at the moment. EURAUD looks like it is trying to turn south, but this has yet to be confirmed for sure. EURGBP’s present attempt to turn south has yet to be confirmed as a Bona fide reversal and might therefore only be a temporary pullback. It’s probably best to observe from the sidelines for now. EURJPY turned north on Friday after first turning south. EURUSD is experiencing a pullback in its northbound trajectory, making 1.2315 a possible entry level for a long position. GBPJPY turned north toward the end of Friday. GBPUSD began Friday with a bullish sentiment, then turned south, then north, and then south again. It looked like it was trying to turn north at the end of Friday, so it’s probably best not to touch this pair with a 10-foot pole! NZDJPY turned north at the end of the day Friday. NZDUSD the current upward push is not yet confirmed as a Bona fide reversal, and might therefore simply be a pullback in the pair’s bearish trajectory. USDCAD at the moment, the current downward push is perhaps best interpreted as a temporary pullback in the pair’s otherwise bullish trajectory, which if true, would make 1.2877 an almost ideal level from which to enter a long position. USDCHF turned north at the end of the day Friday. USDJPY turned north at the end of the day Friday. Enter long positions on pullbacks to the south.
Just about all 15 of the currency pairs I watch look like they are trying to reverse direction, so I’m just going to be observing for the time being.
The Forex market is extremely dynamic and constantly fluctuating. Accordingly, I have honed my system to the point where it is acutely attuned to the market’s behavior on a moment-by-moment basis, rendering weekly or daily prognostications obsolete as soon as intraday updates are formulated, which happens with great frequency. Consequently, I will no longer be making such forecasts, and in fact, this might be my last addition to this thread in that the development of my approach to reading the Forex market is more than likely already produced its finished product (a set system).