To represent the most favorable conditions for executing high probability trades given the system I’ve developed for buying and selling foreign currency pairs online, I decided that it made the greatest sense to conceptualize price as existing (or operating) in various states of normalcy. I would essentially be quantifying the odds of price moving in a particular direction according to the amount of pressure coercing it to shift from statistically abnormal to more typical degrees of deviation. To accomplish this, I decided to use a rating system that assigns numbers to the amount of force pushing price to rise or fall, with rankings for the amount of pressure drawing price higher labeled as "buoyancy levels" and the magnitude of pressure pushing price lower referred to as "gravitational levels." There were a total of nine levels (in either direction) so I initially planned to use the nine digits, but upon further reflection, given that there were two different categories of levels, I thought it better to use the numerals one through five to represent the less extreme rankings, and the letters A through D to represent the more radical positions. Thus, the levels consisting of both a number and a letter are more extreme than those expressed using just a number, with maximum pressure to reverse direction occurring at level 5D and the least amount of pressure occurring at level one. In fact, now that I think about it, to do otherwise would not have been possible because both categories of pressure often exist simultaneously. (Black represents upward pressure [buoyancy levels] and Deep Pink represents downward pressure [gravitational levels].)
The above is no longer applicable. As for the start of this week... BULLISH AUDJPY looks bullish to me from both a day-to-day and intraday context. CADJPY turned north on Friday. CHFJPY broke out of a three-day range-bound pattern on Friday EURAUD broke out of the consolidation pattern it entered on Wednesday and continued on Thursday. EURUSD turned north on Wednesday. EURGBP turned north on Wednesday. EURJPY turned north on Friday. GBPJLY turned north on Friday. GBPUSD is still bullish, but seems to currently be experiencing a period of weakness. NZDJPY is arguably in more or less of a range-bound situation, but technically, it is slightly bullish, so the fact that it dropped down to close at 76.53 on Friday I found to be kind of a "joke." USDJPY turned north on Friday. BEARISH USDCAD turned south on Tuesday. USDCHF turned south on Tuesday. NEUTRAL AUDUSD might possibly be in the midst of consolidation. The bullish sentiment adopted on Tuesday has pretty much lost all momentum, so the pair now needs to decide if it wants to reverse direction and head south, or to eventually resume a northbound trajectory. NZDUSD looks like it might be losing the bullish momentum that began on Tuesday. Like AUDUSD, the pair needs to decide if it wants to reverse direction and head south, or to resume its northbound trajectory. Similar to NZDJPY, the way this pair suddenly fell 20 to 30 pips right at Friday’s close makes it look like the market makers were once again up to their shenanigans.
I'm currently monitoring these two pairs to determine whether they just reached the foot of the last mountain and are initiating a climb up the next—especially USDCAD—thereby adopting a new bullish sentiment.
What's changed? BULLISH AUDJPY looks bullish to me from both a day-to-day and intraday context. (It's now bearish from a day-to-day perspective.) CADJPY turned north on Friday. CHFJPY broke out of a three-day range-bound pattern on Friday (So are these two!) EURAUD broke out of the consolidation pattern it entered on Wednesday and continued on Thursday. (Has to decide which direction to take at this point!) These guys are still bullish overall... EURUSD turned north on Wednesday. EURGBP turned north on Wednesday. EURJPY turned north on Friday. GBPUSD is still bullish, but seems to currently be experiencing a period of weakness. GBPJLY turned north on Friday. (Now neutral) Bullish: NZDJPY is arguably in more or less of a range-bound situation, but technically, it is slightly bullish, so the fact that it dropped down to close at 76.53 on Friday I found to be kind of a "joke." USDJPY turned north on Friday. (It's now slightly bearish.) BEARISH (Now Bullish!) USDCAD turned south on Tuesday. USDCHF turned south on Tuesday. NEUTRAL AUDUSD might possibly be in the midst of consolidation. The bullish sentiment adopted on Tuesday has pretty much lost all momentum, so the pair now needs to decide if it wants to reverse direction and head south, or to eventually resume a northbound trajectory. (Now slightly bearish.) NZDUSD looks like it might be losing the bullish momentum that began on Tuesday. (No--it's still bullish!)
New Diagnosis: BULLISH: EURGBP EURJPY EURUSE GBPUSD NZDJPY NZDUSD USDCAD USDCHF BEARISH: AUDJPY AUDUSD CADJPY CHFJPY USDJPY NEUTRAL: EURAUD GBPJPY
I’ve concluded that the day-to-day trend is not having enough of an impact for me to give it priority in my personal trading. So from now on, I will be looking at things from a primarily intra-day perspective… AUDJPY continues to be bullish. Over the last three days, AUDUSD has been bearish overall, but is nonetheless relatively range-bound. Though bearish, GBPUSD was extremely “overbought,” so I was in a long position. Consequently, when the Telegraph reported that the UK and EU were said to have reached an agreement on the Brexit divorce bill, the rate blew by my take-profit target, which was kind of nice, but I now have no clue as to what the pair’s sentiment is. I will also have to wait and see what happens with GBPJPY and EURGBP. EURUSD and EURJPY remain bearish. CADJPY, CHFJPY, and EURAUD also turned bearish within the last 24 hours. I’m watching USDJPY because it looks like it’s trying to turn south. NZDUSD and NZDJPY look like they are trying to turn south as well. USDCAD and USDCHF continue to be bullish, and USDCHF has been offering numerous opportunities to pick up a few pips profit every time it pulls back.
USDJPY took a big hop to the north and continues on its bullish way. However, NZDUSD and NZDJPY did follow through on turning south. At this time, it looks like EURJPY might be trying to turn north. I also have my eye on EURAUD for he same reason. CHFJPY looks like it has already reversed to the north and I am waiting for the right time to enter a long position. CADJPY has done the same.
I enjoyed reading your journal. Because it reminded me of all the silly mistakes which I made when I first started trading. I did similar things like reading experts opinion about forex analysis from internet. Unfortunately those experts are only expert in writing, not trading.
Yes, I believe today I just might have finished the process of becoming my own “expert.” If the adjustment(s) I made for my last four trades pan out the way I hope, virtually all of my trades will be winners from now on, and the back-and-forth swings that characterized today’s trading (see below) will be replaced by a line that ONLY climbs higher (for the most part).