South Winds, Red Skies & Clouds in the West

Discussion in 'Journals' started by expiated, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. expiated

    expiated

    With the gap down at this week’s open, GBPUSD is now bearish. However, at 1.3107 there is no more room for the pair to continue south structurally speaking since it has already broken through statistical support. To enter a short position, there would first need to be a northbound pullback followed by a hook south, and in fact, price is so depressed at this point that it might make sense to look for a few pips profit by entering a long position (assuming that price has temporarily turned north).

    GBPUSDM1.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
    #111     Nov 12, 2017
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    expiated

    Hoping to pick up a handful of pips from buying AUDJPY at 86.92

    AUDJPYM5.png

    This trade has delivered its payout. In that AUDJPY is currently neutral to bearish, a short position can be entered upon confirmation if and when price hooks to the south.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2017
    #112     Nov 12, 2017
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    In that AUDUSD is still bearish, this pullback might have provided a nice spot from which to enter a short position:

    AUDUSDM5.png
     
    #113     Nov 12, 2017
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    I was stopped out of AUDUSD, but the pair is still bearish and I just got another, even stronger, sell signal, so I’m going to give it another try.

    AUDUSDM5.png
     
    #114     Nov 12, 2017
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    This took a relatively long period of time! I'm hoping to get at least ten pips worth of profit out of this trade:

    GBPUSDM15.png
     
    #115     Nov 13, 2017
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    I was burned twice by AUDUSD, so I'm going to need to see my ultimate confirmation signal before I short it again, at which point, I "shouldn't" get stopped out anymore. I'm also waiting for a go ahead signal to buy GBPJPY, given that all the major currencies tied to the yen just plunged following the release of the JPY Machine Tool Orders figure.

    USDJPYM5.png

    USDJPY looked like it wanted to rise more than GBPJPY, so I bought that pair instead. But it stopped me out, so I will probably end up buying GBPJPY anyway. (GBPJPY continues to fall! AUDJPY rose nicely, but unfortunately, that wasn't the pair I opted to purchase.)

    AUDUSDM5.png

    AUDUSD is "supposed" to cooperate with me this time around.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2017
    #116     Nov 13, 2017
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    FINALLY!

    AUDUSDM5.png
     
    #117     Nov 13, 2017
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    The fact that I was stopped out more than once today caused me to reassess how I interpret my charts and make the following two trades based on my adjusted viewpoint...

    ScreenHunter_6667 Nov. 13 03.17.jpg
     
    #118     Nov 13, 2017
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    My adjusted viewpoint would seem to have some validity. It appears to have the power to eliminate the problem I was having with my average loss trades bettering my average profit trades...

    ScreenHunter_6668 Nov. 13 10.25.jpg

    Of the 13 total trades executed, the last three were based on my new insights, and they resulted in a profitable day overall, despite my extremely dismal 46% success rate, with all three trades exited successfully.

    Assuming the modifications I’ve made will return my daily success rate back to 80%-90%, and that they will continue to generate profit-to-loss ratios significantly larger than any I was ever able to achieve in the past, it would probably be safe to conclude that they constitute a rather marked improvement to my system.
     
    #119     Nov 13, 2017
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    expiated

    Based on recent modifications I made to my system, I’m hoping this EURGBP trade will add a few more pips to my daily total.

    EURGBPM5.png
     
    #120     Nov 13, 2017