Green after commission. Unplugged before 12 PM. Following the discipline. Good day overall. The 11:10 market drop was fun to see as a learning opportunity. I don’t yet have the guts to go big on these kind of waves and just ride them. I’m sure some do, but I go in and out when I’m at high confidence points in the move. The big money is made by holding on tight and riding it all the way. I’m sure of that. *There were 400+ or 500+ orders sitting on the bid, so I wasn’t sure how far it was going to go. There must be a better way to read into these kinds of moves? I’m thinking Composite Volume Profile, but I need to do my homework here. I’d like to get a better sense of how far the market can go in a given day or even a given retracement. The Volume Profile on NT8 isn’t always very helpful; some days it fills out, other days it doesn’t really tell me much. Maybe I don’t know how to tweak it. I’m thinking about purchasing a software pack.
Sonny2010, You trading from home or from work ? If trading from home...you alone in the house by the time the afternoon trading session begins ? I've met others like you that are consistently profitable in the a.m. and then consistently not profitable in the p.m. along with the fact that they can not shut it down prior to the start of the p.m. trading session. Worst, they often give back their profits from the a.m. trading session in that p.m. trading session. Why do they continue doing such ? Fear of missing out, greed, trying to outsmart their trade method in the p.m., guilty for not trading in the p.m. (trying to make it look like a full-time job), distractions in the a.m. that fools them into believing they'll perform better in the p.m. when there's less distractions, seduction of the calmer markets in the p.m. and other reasons. Until you can discover the cause for your poor trade performance in the p.m...best to shut it all down in the afternoon before the p.m. trading session gets started. Shutting it all down means turn off the computer and walk away to do other personal activities including leaving the house if necessary or routingly scheduling appointments/activities in the p.m. only until you develop a routine for shutting it down when the p.m. starts. Also, shutting it down may include stopping all activities related to your trading (e.g. hanging out at trading forums)...seriously. Money plays tricks on the mind and a routine is the best way break discipline problems. wrbtrader
Thanks, wrbtrader. Appreciate the feedback. You hit the nail on the head: A bit of greed after a good morning + fear of missing out + trying to prove my process can work in the afternoon are the main culprits. I'm trading from home, and I am alone in the house all day. I'm a professor and currently teach in the late afternoon/early evenings. Usually, my outside day doesn’t begin until ~3PM as a result. My best solution is to shut it down by lunch each day and get out of the house. You’re absolutely right. I’ve had success sticking to this discipline, and this journal helps keep me accountable.
Green after commission. Unplugged at 12PM. Following the discipline. Good day overall. There was a very large volume order placed at 11:57AM that pushed the market up by 10 ticks in a minute. That must have been a single 500+ contract institutional order. I didn’t take a nice trade that I normally would have earlier in the day; I had some tasks to complete in the early morning, so I didn’t get to digest my news until later in the morning. I don’t like to trade unless I’ve spent some time getting a handle on the morning news/prior 12 hrs. It's just a comfort thing for me. (The Compositie Volume Profile that NT8 provides as part of the platform didn’t help me much. I need to look into this or spend some time learning more about the available software packs. I think it can be a valuable purchase, but want to make sure I really understand how to integrate it with my process.) Off to the rest of my day. Happy trading, all.
Green after commission. Unplugged at 12PM today. Following the discipline. Good day overall. I only traded 1.5 hrs. I once told myself in my equities days that I wouldn't trade with important news pending (random development in the China situation, Fed surpise). I'm confident to trade any situation as long as I stick to my process, I just don't like the idea that everything is moving X and then a wild swing in the other direction takes over because someone had a faster news feed. There is always this risk, of course, but our current times make it more common than not. Notes: I made a low-confidence trade early on and ended up holding it for a bit. I wasn't following the method, and I paid for it (literally and figuratively). The good news is that I'm more comfortable waiting to time my exit in a situation like this. I was able to minimize my losses on this mistake, which I attribute purely to experience at this point (minimal experience). But, getting stuck holding the bag on a low-confidence trade prevented me from taking a higher-confidence trade that came along because I was stuck waiting to exit. There's a lesson here on missed opportunity. I'm still not entirely confident on how to play the high-velocity moves like we saw today right before noon. I don't have a proper sense of how far these kinds of moves can go. I suspect we'll see more of these ahead, one way or another. Off to the rest of my day. Happy trading, all.
Green after commission. 14/15 accurate trades. Shut it down 11:45AM. Similar feel for the trades as yesterday. Very nice. Notes: I clipped my losing trade early (or, I should say earlier than I would have a few weeks ago). I know that if I hold on to it, the trade might come back a bit, but I wasn’t going to take that chance with an early AM trade. Too erratic at that time. I also saw the “bull flag” building around 11:30 AM, but I’m not confident on how to trade those yet. UPDATE: I re-entered after 12PM and lost all of my profits for the week plus losses. Unbelievable. I have conviction in my method, but need to manage AM only trading better. To have an amazing morning wiped away by greed and a lack of discipline is a terrible feeling. If I could repeat the type of performance I’ve been having in the AM without the PM failures, then I’d be doing well indeed. I feel I’m at the “hump” where I can either decide to push over the mountain, or give up entirely. The truly insane part? It’s only because I entered after 12PM. I was about to walk away at 11:45AM and work on something else with a smile, but I had to slide in another trade. My focus was shot...the spiral started after a nasty loss and I traded poorly from there. It’s not a rush thing for me. I don’t like that adrenaline rush/panic feeling. I genuinely enjoy the trading. It’s a nice way to focus intensely and stimulate your mind for a few hours. I also like the idea of improving a skill through practice, and actually “feel” yourself improving. But, damn, I need to get out of the house by 12PM… Here’s to being honest with the journal – that’s the entire point. Happy trading, all.
Green after commission. Out at 12PM, hard stop. I set an alarm on my desk clock. I had a very good morning. 15/18 trades. It was a highly active morning, so I took more trades than normal. 2 of my losing trades were large, so I need to get comfortable cutting them even shorter. A fine-tuning I guess. The thing is...according to my method, I wouldn't cut them shorter next time. So, I guess I have to accept that there will be losers in the method no matter what I do. The key, then, is sticking to the method. Strategy: My confidence was hurting yesterday and last night. I'll be honest here. I was kicking myself after yesterday afternoon's hole-digging session. I woke up with the comfort that I probably wouldn't trade until Monday, but my method showed there was opportunity when I saw the market. The compromise? Trade much, much smaller. I traded much smaller for my first few trades to ensure focus. I remember this strategy from Marty Schwartz's book. Remember to take breaks whether you're winning or losing, and start small when coming back from a loss to get back your confidence. I'm on to the rest of my day. Happy trading, all.
3/25 Flat before commission. I had 2 internet connection issues. The first time it dropped out, it came back in 1 minute. The second time, it didn’t. I realized my router was turned the wrong way. By the time I fixed it and was re-connected, the market had danced the other way and I closed the trade immediately out of fear the connection might disappear again. This loss hurt the entire day. 3/26 Red after commission. Done at 12PM. I wasn't seeing the market for my trades, and should have sat out the day. A different discipline. I reviewed my data, and I’m letting losses get too large. I have a healthy winning trade ratio, but I let my losses get too large nearly every time. Why is this? I realized that mentally, the idea of taking a loss when I’ve been green all day is counter-intuitive; so, I fight it and wait. This is not the first time I’ve taken note of this in the journal, which means it requires a hard solution. I think a 4-tick hard stop is best. The double-edged sword is that after a loss, you might abandon your rules to “make up” your loss and get even with the market. This is wrong thinking. Also, I am most profitable for my first hour of trading – could it be that I need to minimize my trading window down to only an hour, maybe 1.5 hrs? My 12 PM rule was in place because I was almost always red in the PM, and realized how profitable I’d be if I only traded until noon. A quick glance at the last week shows that my first hour is the most profitable…perhaps I should more finely tune it? The longer I trade outside the 1 hr. window, the higher the likelihood of a losing trade coming along. I need to think about this. Off to the rest of my day. Happy trading, all.
Red after commission. I'm at a standstill about whether to keep venturing forward, or, like so many before me, swallow the losses and move on with life. *I have confidence in my method, but not in my execution of the method.* I was up substantially, met my daily goal by 11:00, and then proceeded to give it all back and then some after a larger trade went against me fast. I was flat by 11:30 and red by 12PM. It was psychologically devastating to let the same thing happen to you over and over again... Also, the market has "seemed" painfully slow the last few days, which I don't enjoy. I understand it is in a downtrend, but the velocity seems lower. This could be my mind playing tricks on me. Notes: I realized that I have foolishly been miscalculating my commissions per trade. This has been gradually eating into my account. I went to re-review everything and am going to re-tool my approach. My green days were not nearly as green as I thought, and my red days were worse than I though. If you calculate the per profit on 1 contract per tick after commission, it leaves little room for mistakes in the long-term. I've been doing more trades the last few days as I became more confident in my strategy...yet I was fairly disappointed with the overall results given the effort. Futures brokers make incredibly easy money this way. Win, lose, draw...they do very well no matter what. Fewer trades is one option. Another option is to increase size on the higher probability trades, which I am not comfortable doing. One bad trade or one moment of lapsed discipline on a stop with a large trade relative to the account size can be devastating. Given that commissions are per contract, this loss is magnified.
3/27 - 3/28 No trading; became a bit busy. I found myself a bit shaky after getting clobbered the other day, so I decided to take a break and only get back into it when: 1.) I've used the SIM some more for strategy purposes 2.) I successfully test out another system I've been meaning to try. My skill set has something to do with data collection and analysis, so I want to play with some things and see what I can do. I also need to learn how to leverage the NT8 order and strategy system (ATM, etc.) better. This will take some time. I'll post back in here when I've something useful to journal in a few days. Happy trading, all.