Son of If You Can Draw a Straight Line . . .

Discussion in 'Journals' started by dbphoenix, Sep 19, 2013.

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  1. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    He may be. But more likely it has to do with the fact that he has so much less to unlearn. He is, no offense intended, in much the same position as the nine-year-old.

    In the case of the V reversal that he mentioned, not necessarily, though as I posted above, there were more than a half dozen entry ops even if one waited for such a break, the first one of which was a test of the supply line from above.
     
    #321     Sep 30, 2013
  2. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    Correct. And there's no short because there is not yet, or wasn't at the time, any reason to exit the long. Other than fear. But he hasn't learned that yet. Hopefully never will because his ego's not tied up in his trades.
     
    #322     Sep 30, 2013
  3. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    And here we are at the top of the air pocket which, as I pointed out earlier, is also the midpoint of last week's range. One can take this lower high or wait for a break of the demand line. Trader's choice.
     
    #323     Sep 30, 2013
  4. I made a mistake, by exiting on a minor line break. I should have honored the fanned line, but thought we were hitting resistance.
    I left a lot on the table.

    Poor trade management?

    Lack of skill/knowledge?

    Fear of loss?

    All of the above.


    Trailing higher lows would have worked great today
    and adding on all the points DB mentioned.

    Or just honoring the fanned line.
     
    #324     Sep 30, 2013
  5. I missed that .. what is it?
     
    #325     Sep 30, 2013
  6. fortydraws

    fortydraws

    1) I often let price pull me into a trade soon after the open settles down by placing a stop on one or the other, sometimes, but rarely, both sides of the opening range. While everyday is not a trend day, by any means, the NQ is often good for 5 - 10 points or more as it works out the extreme high or low for the day off of that first swing. This comes merely from observation of how the NQ trades over time.

    2) Today, there is also the context of a) a V bottom reversal b) The Dog not barking [price rallying against the expectation of many for a continued drop] and c) price very oversold relative to its most recent short term channel, which I posted at 7 AM EST and again soon after 9:30 EDT.

    As to be a genius, I assure you that genius's do not spend nearly 30 years doing what I've been doing for a living. But I am smart enough, and willing to work smart enough, to follow DbPhoenix's threads, read Wyckoff's books, study the charts at the Wyckoff forum.

    And go back to the first post in this thread:

    Step One: Determine current trend

    Step Two: Determine where we are in that trend

    Step 3: Determine your proper timing of one's entry.

    For today:

    Step One: Price has been in a sideways trend channel for about two weeks, with a slight downward bias

    Step Two: Price has reached an extreme oversold condition relative to its trend

    Step Three: Enter on a stop if price breaks above the high of its opening range; given the extreme oversold condition, look for reasons to stay long rather than reasons to exit quickly - if price gets to 3210, the approximate midpoint of 241.50 to 178.25, then look to see what traders do - sustained trade above is buyer strength, trade below, would give a nod to the sellers.

    Here is that chart from 7 AM again:
     
    #326     Sep 30, 2013
  7. fortydraws

    fortydraws


    As of this moment, 1119 EST, I am still long and I have to go to work early. Price is at 3210, and I have a hard stop at 3208. I do keep a laptop in my work truck, and I have my trading platform's mobile app on my phone, so if I am not stopped out at 3208, I will be following along as I am able. At this point, I have to go ... no message boards for me while I am dealing with customers :)

    On a different day, in a different context, I may have done this differently. But for today, given what I "think" I know, this is how I want to let this trade work out. Any day where the worse thing that can happen is I am stopped out with nearly +22 points profit, is a good day in my opinion.

    Have a good day!
     
    #327     Sep 30, 2013
  8. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    It also helps if one can trade without letting one's ego interfere.
     
    #328     Sep 30, 2013
  9. Never mind.. got it....... key concept Db.. I just call it something else.. Clever name.

    Wolf
     
    #329     Sep 30, 2013
  10. dbphoenix

    dbphoenix

    I can't take credit for it. I just happened to be working on something having to do with reversals one day while The Hound of the Baskervilles was on.
     
    #330     Sep 30, 2013
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