Sometimes I wonder why ...

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by hajimow, Mar 27, 2007.

  1. hajimow


    When I do my research on the stocks, most of the time I find some stocks that are unbelievably high or I am sure they are pumped. They stay high and that keeps me wonder what could be wrong with my analysis. As the time passes, they tumble hard and it makes me come to the belief that no stock can stay unjustifiably high for a long time. For example a while ago NFI was at $40s and they had about 15% dividend. It was too good to be true and now NFI is at $5 !!. OSTK was at $80 two years ago and I could hardly justify it to be even at $10 and now I think it should be at $13. To cust the story short, I see SNDK is overpriced (of course it is not that bad like NFI). The pumpers claim that memory market will stabilize in 2007. So what? Assume that it is true. Memory is only a commodity. There will always be price war as it is on the other semiconductor devices like processors . Price war between AMD and INTC. You can not justify P/E of 47 for SNDK. I predict very soon we should see SNDK in 20s if not lower. SNDK is a great company but ........
    I trade SNDK but mostly on the short side.
    My post does not mean to go short on SNDK. Do your own research.
  2. hajimow


    Strange day today for SNDK, does it mean it has changed its direction to another big fall?
  3. The "15% dividend yield" never existed.

    When you see "yields" that high...
    The dividend has probably been slashed or suspended...
    And BANKRUPTCY is a probability.

    The fact that you do not understand even the most basic stuff about dividends...
    Strongly implies that your "research" is worthless.
  4. hajimow


    I am sorry for your attitude. They used to pay that dividend but some analysts were saying that pay can not stay. Yes now they are close to get bankrupt but 2 years ago that was a high flying stock. The fact that I predicted NFI can not stay at $40, shows that I am a market guru:cool:
  5. hajimow


    Do some research before accusing. Over $5.6 dividend in a year. Look at the attachment.

    Market Guru .
  6. You "research" is worthless.

    In fact...
    It likely is WORSE than worthless...
    And locks you into a ** negative expectation **.

    It puts you on the opposite side as all the insiders that are trading a sure thing.

    U seems to learn real slow.
  7. hajimow


    Yes you are right and I don't know what you are talking about.
  8. feb2865


    and you're an unconsidered idiot judging by the way you write

    and mods are doing a sissy work letting people like you insulting others

    no offense intended by the way
  9. The guy is right. Your research is worthless and here is why.

    The only way for you to know what is truly happening with the company is for you to be on the executive team. There is no other way of knowing what is truly going on. Whatever research you perform will not be 100% valid in the end run. In reality, the general public is usually shown rosy pictures from top management. You never see whats really behind the curtains.

    Analyst upgrades or downgrades are also useless. There is no way of knowing the reasoning behind their argument. They might be trying to buy more shares at a lower price or trying to help their clients exit out of a large position.

    Technical analysis is a better way to figure out where a price is headed. However, even that may not be valid 100% of the time.

    Therefore, research is worthless, technical analysis is a better guideline. However, even that is just a guideline and not a rule.

    In the end run, its a big gamble and the only way for you to truly know what is happening is to be a part of the executive team.
  10. hajimow


    I am really sorry to see the way you are ruling everything with Technical analysis. My point was that if a company pays %15 divdend, there should be something wrong. The max divdend pay by utility companies are about %4. You can see this fishy thing in your technical analysis. You could not see the Bre-X scandanl in charts. High profit comes with exposing yourself to more risk.
    #10     Mar 29, 2007