Something very simplistic

Looks good too me.

If your charting package marks the bars with the time they start, then the first bar on the chart would be the 9:30 bar - the 9:33 bar would be the 4th bar on the chart.

If you charting package market the bars with the time they end, the first bar on the chart would be the 9:31 bar, and the 4th bar on the chart would be the 9:34 bar.

The fib numbers are relative to 0.

 

re-draw

 

Quah,

I wonder if the edge here has nothing to do with entry time. Maybe its the 1 1/4 stop loss vs 1 point profit target. While I haven't tested it, I would guess the ES makes more chops of a 1 point magnitude than of a 1 1/4 point magnitude. Positive expectation could be coming from the system (with trades launched in the direction of the current micro trend) grabbing profit on 1 point swings/chops in the right direction while ignoring all 1 point chops in the wrong direction.??

 

resinate,

If that were the case, why not make trade after trade when the last has concluded?

I do believe in simplicity in a system, but I don't think that random entry points or fixed entry points is the key.

The key, from my observations, is learning to spot trends and knowing when to trade and when not to trade.

We shall see with real money how that all works out.

aphie

 

Isn't that a bit contradictory? Maybe when to trade is 9:33, 9:35, 9:38, etc... - no?

 

Sure, that is possible. Like I said, I have no idea what the edge is here - if there is any, and why it works - if it works.

As someone else mentioned above, maybe the edge is that is forces a strict discipline - and that removes many of the things that cause bad trades.

 

Quah,

Honestly, don't get me wrong. I fully support what you are doing and I hope it is successful. Any speculation on my part is no better than a guess. I admire the fact that you are putting real money on this system and have the balls to see what happens.

I'm not saying it won't work -- I'm just skeptical of the nature of the system because it is so radical.

However, many of the most radical ideas are the best ones.

 

I hear ya.

Maybe with 90+% of the people who mainly use "non-radical" methods fail, I figure it's best to stay away from anything that makes sense in the old fashioned way.

 

Quite the contrary but I was remiss in not crediting you with the original idea. How is the little fella? Was he upset by the delayed open yesterday?

 

another idea is for certain number of bars market will 'turn' I pick 18 bars for this example