Something very simplistic

Things are going pretty well today it looks like. I have been following the NQ and the ES both Z contracts. Lots of profits.

The NQZ just finished a double-whammy loser...yes? Or am I not doing it right. I am using the 17 1 17 setting on the ...... maaaaaaan, the 1 minute stochastic...... oh well going back and looking at the 2 minute won't be hard.

My bad. It's always something...

 

Not really, what I'm saying is that you need to at least recognize what part of your system is giving you that edge, otherwise you will run into problems adjusting that system (position size, stop ranges, etc). Now that the discussion has started wading into "fading your own indicator" and "doubling up on SAR off losers," it's an indication that that the source of profits is in question.

The reason I brought up selling out-of-money calls and puts and Martingale System is that these strategies may seem to consistently add to profitability in the short run, yet they carry within them enormous risks if one is not careful. I'm not saying your approach has that same risk factor involved, but to say that "as long as it's profitable keep doing it, don't worry how" can be a dangerous attitude.

You've stated that others have incorporated some of the ideas in this thread into their own trading -- I just hope they understand what kinds of changes they are making.

 

LOL.

Yes, NQZ took a double-whammy on the 10:25 trade after an obscene 24 minute hold.

 

Okay, I understand what you are saying. You've been saying that all along but I was a bit to defensive to see it. Sorry about that.

 

Hey man this system is crap... it loses once in awhile. LOL. There, whew, had to blow off some unreasonable expectations.

Thanks for confirming Quah. You know I am such a keyboard and mouse klutz that my only worry would be getting in the orders right. I think I can manage one, but both....?

I have IB so I will try to get up to speed with the hotkeys et al.

Way to go man.

 

Btw, I appreciate fully your reference to lifestyle. That is one of the reasons I like trading long term.

But if I am going to be here anyway on some days, and I can pick up some lunch money, hey, why not?

Again.... way to go man.

 

This is definitely an advantage to your timing system -- keeping the majority of trades early on while your mind is fresh, and by forcing you to trade less as the day goes on, it keeps suicidal trading to get back losses to a minimum. I was skeptical about how the entry time spacing could improve one's trading but I think I see how it would help scalping-type traders.

 

Very interesting thread. I know nothing about futures, NQ, ES, and it all looks like greek to me, so I was wondering if someone might take pity and answer a few questions that I'm sure are insultingly basic. I've searched in all the places I can think of, but my experience is that the hardest questions to find answers for on the web are the most basic beginner ones.

1. I've signed up to get the futures quotes on IB. Should I be looking at NQ -> Future -> Sep(USD) -> 2002(USD)? The Description on this is listed as "SEP02 Futures NQU2". If this isn't correct, could you list exactly how I get the correct quote?

2. Currently the bid on this is 885.5...I assume then that I need $885.50 to purchase one contract? If this is true...are there weird margin requirements that I don't understand, or can I really start using this system by putting $2000 into my account?

3. Are futures subject to the same daytrading rules as stocks? That is, with an account balance of under $25k, am I limited to 3 daytrades?

I'm not looking for a complete explanation of how futures work...just enough to get started following this idea.

Thanks!

 

I didn’t change the NQ target to 2.50 like I mentioned I might yesterday, stuck with 3.00. Ate one double-loser on the NQ that might have been a winner @ 2.50, but then again if I change it to 2.50 there would be some trades that would be winner at 2.00 – so I’ll just leave it alone for now. Also ate one double-loser on the ES.

Otherwise, the total time in trade for ES was great today – for NQ it was pretty bad. I’m going to stop early again today – have some appts to make - won’t be taking the last 3 trades.


For 9/19/2002:

ESZ2:

9 Total Trades
7 Winners
2 Losers
Avg. Winner +1.00 / Avg. Loser -1.25
Gross 4.50 points - $225.00/contract
Commission $43.20
Net $181.80/contract
Total Time in trades: 9min 30sec (!!!)

NQZ2:

10 Total Trades
7 Winners
3 Losers
Avg. Winner +3.07 / Avg. Loser -3.50
Gross 11.00 points - $220.00/contract
Commission $48.00
Net $172.00/contract
Total Time in trades: 58min 30sec

ES Trades:

9:33 L 853.75 +1.00 (0:30)
9:35 L 853.75 -1.25 S 852.50 -1.25 (2:00)
9:38 L 854.00 +1.00 (1:00)
9:43 S 854.75 +1.00 (2:00)
9:51 S 853.75 +1.00 (1:30)
10:04 L 857.75 +1.00 (1:00)
10:25 L 857.75 +1.00 (0:30)
10:59 L 855.50 +1.00 (1:00)
11:54 (not taken)
13:23 (not taken)
15:47 (not taken)

NQ Trades

9:33 L 880.50 +3.00 (4:30)
9:35 L 879.50 +3.00 (4:00)
9:38 L 881.00 +3.00 (2:00)
9:43 S 881.00 +3.00 (3:00)
9:51 S 879.50 -3.50 L 883.00 +3.50 (12:00)
10:04 L 886.00 +3.00 (4:00)
10:25 L 887.00 -3.50 S 883.50 -3.50 (24:00)
10:59 L 887.50 +3.00 (5:00)
11:54 (not taken)
13:23 (not taken)
15:47 (not taken)

 

It seems a lifetime ago that one could get it all done in 90 minutes, then do something more interesting for the rest of the day. Then it got to the point where you had to sit in front of the screen from the open to the close - and sometimes beyond - just to pick up a few bucks. As you imply, this resulted in a lot of revenge trading, forced trading, cowboy trades. If nothing else, Quah has helped to refocus attention to that first 90 minutes and to offer some suggestions as to how the most can be made of them. He's dead right, for example, about the pointlessness of "letting profits run" when you're locked into congestion. Take the three points and be glad.

Yes, one can still lose by making the wrong calls during that first period, but if nothing else, this "system" forces him to stop rather than make the situation worse.

--Db