Discussion in 'Trading' started by xD&Cox, Aug 17, 2008.
big plunge coming before the september earnings
Goldman will beat earnings. They are probably having a field day by trading their own stock on these rumours.
I don't doubt that they beat, they are masters of playing the expectations game. What will really matter is by how much.
Didn't anyone catch the big name analyst cautious outlook on GS last week??? Lowered price targets, the whole bit. Here is the reason for your mysterious on-goings with GS tape. Say what you will, but Meredith Whitney has been relatively spot-on with her calls, as much as it hurts me to say so. People are recognizing that GS might be full of BS. The only thing that worries me is that GS has been the golden child of the markets that has been given a savoir-like status, but if GS fudges earnings, and the fed doesn't conveniently step in to reinstate the naked short rule, you can bet that there's gonna be hedge funds trying to rip alot of premium out of GS's stock. Where you have citi and lehman trading in the teens, GS is in the 160's, that means there's alot more to profit to the downside. If GS rolls over, and takes out the 140 low, this market is gonna be toast.
You guys are nuts. Goldman will prevail.
Q3 has been incredibly "slow" of the investment banks, including Goldman who made a small fortune on all of the underwriting for the commercial banks that needed to raise capital back in Q2.
Fixed income trading volume declined in July and August, and both equity and debt underwriting volume is probably down something like 10-15% compared to Q3.
Probably even another billion or two of write-downs as well.
The stock price has simply been trading in a way that reflects the above realities of Q3.
I own, or short , very few equities and GS is on of them. Currently short, for technical reasons ,but "supported" by fundamental reasons as their weakness, as a corporation, is that they are not immune to the financial debacle regardless as to how well they trade internally.
Their core business is suffering as is every other financial institution although they seem to be well heeled to counter any material weaknesses in their business model.
The only question I have as to GS being able to outform the financial sector is ...Where are they going to derive their income from? The financial market is not a pretty place in any part of the universe and shit has not hit the fan in Asia and China yet...
Should GS prove me wrong I will jump to the long side in a heart beat, however I feel that I have time on my side
MER Calls/GS Puts hybrid straddle.
Amongst all the IB, GS has held up the best to date.
Wonder if they can repeat last year's 16B bonus fund?
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