Well, it hasn't happened in 1-day but I guess 13 days and a +12% move in Silver is close enough. I still hold out hope for a big one-day move with all this momentum building. And to all the naysayers, you're right, EUR is only up about 1 1/2 big figures since I made the posting. I guess I suck. I wish I could explain this all logically rather than reading price action.
nice call in silver! it made a 23 year high today and gold broke 600. do you have a target price? thanks, surfer
I heard something about a silver ETF coming down the pike soon. Supposedly the anticipation is pushing silver up, but when the ETF opens the commodity guys are going to pull the plug. Just a rumor - anybody heard anything?
No question that the new ETF is adding some buying. However, nobody is pulling the plug. Of course there is going to be some volatility, however, this market is not being pushed up simply due to the new ETF. There is a larger trend at play here.
As of today I would estimate that Silver is about 20% of my net worth. A core position in Comex style blocks ( insured storage) is the long position. I trade the YI and ZI daily playing the movements as seems fit. I have been staring at the price flow for 4 years. My understanding and observation of the 5 to 800,000,000 oz short that 4 horsemen (and their smaller followers) hold has been, until now, "never bet against them for too long". This week is looking like it may really break out soon. Silver holders have a powerful manufactured consent that these shorts have to capitulate in the light of a technical physical silver deficit. But these Big Boys have CRUSHED the tech fund buyers time and time again. Well...these shorts are nursing a 1 to 2 billion $ paper loss at these prices and they may well be looking for a flimsy catalyst to crush this pop. The ETF release may be the excuse to put the crush on. My feeling now (certainly not justified by previous price action) is that the buying pressure my actually squeeze them this time. I have been surprised by their tenacity a dozen times before so any hope is colored by sardonics. Any real break out from this paper weight (futures and options) that sends these criminal comex shorts packing will lead to a HUGE price pop IMNSHO. The ETF could just be chaulked up as another source of demand in an already deficient supply situation. The absence of the dealer shorts is what will allow price to parabole. So..if this is it....then price targets could be absurdly high....and $25 an oz will seem very obtainable. If a few months from now it languishes at 10 bucks then it will be another day in the neighborhood, deja vu all over again, with us silver hoarders hoping the next pop will be a " Dis is da Big One!"
ppl need to take delivery. someone on et was pointing out just how few of us it would take to send it screaming that way can i get fries with that?
Taking delivery means paying up in full...no margin. It would take a delivery demand of 150 million ozs to increase the pulse of the dealers and send them running. If the average ET'r took delivery of 10 blocks (13 grand a piece) it would take 15,000 ET'rs to do the job. Just 10% of that volume would still pop the price but, perhaps, not with a lasting effect. Show me 15000 ET'rs with that kind of spare change and I will recommend they start their own country with silver as the currency :>)
Yeah, a couple of years ago when silver popped from below $5 to over $8 - that was supposed to be "da Big One!" But the air flubbered out of it like letting air out of a balloon. Will be interesting to see what happens. This time many of the other metals are going with silver - last time gold made a bit of an effort, but that was about it. This probably suggests a move that will be harder to reverse.