Someone bought 5000 LEH 10 puts for 1.45.

Discussion in 'Options' started by wilburbear, Jun 3, 2008.

  1. Symbol "whemb".

    LEH would have to go 1.45 under $10.00 (i.e. $8.55) for this position to show the first penny in profits.
  2. GTS


    Uh, no.
  3. Please explain.
  4. That would only happen if that individual held the options to expiration. He could just as easily sell them tomorrow if LEH falls another 10% at a premium of 3 or something doubling his money in 24 hours.
  5. Your statement is correct only as it regards day of expiration.
  6. GTS


    Do you understand how options are priced?

    If puts become worth $2.00 then the position is profitable. Do you think the stock has to go to $8 for the puts to be worth $2?
  7. That's what I meant. I'm assuming he's holding the position.
  8. Unfortunately we will never know the motivation for such a trade.

    A directional trade (short)? A mutual fund hedging their long exposure? A hedge fund hedging their counterparty risk on CDS they own with LEH on the other side?
  9. Probably more like a head-fake. Shorts being induced to help with the squeeze. Lehman ain't bear.
  10. But it still involves a misunderstanding of options on your part. Assuming that was a lone purchase and not part of some other position/hedge, the person who bought it would LOVE for the stock to get to below $10.00, a drop to $25 on vol spike would be more than enough for the person to make a killing and that could be the bet. IN other words the person chose a cheap OTM option play to be long LEH vols and directional bias.

    Your assumption that he or she is holding the position because they expect the stock to be below $10 by expiration is a major assumption since the holder is can make good money on a much smaller dip if vols cooperate. So the position is not a bet that LEH goes to $8.55, but a bet that LEH has a potential spike down in its future.
    #10     Jun 3, 2008