Some tips in Trading the ES successfully

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by EsKiller, Mar 21, 2011.

  1. Did you do any analysis to quantify this theory, or is based on 'observation'.
     
    #21     Mar 25, 2011
  2. EsKiller

    EsKiller

    the blue line is the 20ema. When price starts pushing up quickly with no retracement, price ends up further away from the 20ema than normal. I consider this a standard deviation or 2 away from the 20ema. When this occurs, many algo's start flipping short or selling long positions. Thats just the nature of the game. I'm not going to tell you how far away it should get. B/c there's no set amount. You have to eyeball it, and watch price action. Watch the bars / candles to see if you see changes. Does it look like selling is occuring ?

    When price is hugging the 20ema, NORMALLY you are seeing a clear push up followed by short consolidation then another push up. You obviously need some resemblance of higher highs. But when the price pushes up and hugs the 20ema, this generally prevents mean reversion algo's to come into effect. Making the possibility of an ADU day more prevalent.


    Look at my Jan 21st chart. Do u see where price starts to pull up fast before the market opens. In fact when it opens, its quite far away compared to earlier in the pre-market trading . What you really need to do is look over past charts to see how these patterns repeat over and over. I can tell you something is the case, but why should u believe me outright ? YOu need to do your own research to verify my points.

    But i figure pointing them out can speed up the learning process for some.
     
    #22     Mar 25, 2011
  3. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    Can you post recent chart examples from this week Emini ES price action to explain this price action with the moving average indicators. ???

    Mark
     
    #23     Mar 26, 2011
  4. EsKiller

    EsKiller

    first of all, the moving averages are not indicators. Just points of reference. But here is a chart of thursday March 24th, 2011.

    I chose this chart b/c it has a pre-market uptrend and mean reversion included.

    Okay....

    1) Look at the pre-market trend up. It doesnt start until about the open of the European markets, which immediately makes me skeptical of an ADU day. While its possible, I still remain skeptical as I like to see the market trend since japanese open.

    2) Look at before I drew the arrow. We are quite far away from the EMA, and we're now seeing fairly heavy selling come through after we smack 1302. Mean reversion occuring here. Look at my circle. Attempted thrusts up that fail. Still think this is a small pullback before more up ? I am skeptical.

    3) Look at my 2 black bars. Inbetween is a basing pattern. Price pretty much chops between a set range and doesnt hit any new highs or lows. Basing patters followed by a move up or down are usually GREAT support / resistance areas. My rule of thumb is I require 30 mins minimum of selling before price hits the basing pattern. When you see hard selling occuring for at least 30 mins, these basing patterns make great support. In fact, the longer price is falling WITHOUT any pullback, the stronger the snap once price hits the suport of the basing pattern it becomes.

    4) Remember how I said when the 15 min MA's are trending up but you see price falling that there's usually a good buy indicator in there somewhere ? I like to buy those dips as price rarely just falls through the floor in this instance.

    So we have mean reversion, a basing pattern, uptrending MA's, and some bearish PA in the circle given.


    What is the most conservative entry to trade here ? How would u adapt this for your own trading ? I'll leave those questions up to you !
     
    #24     Mar 26, 2011
  5. Wi!s0n

    Wi!s0n

    Killer, are you entering off a smaller time frame? Thanks.
     
    #25     Mar 26, 2011
  6. EsKiller

    EsKiller

    on occasion I will use the 5 min chart to enter, and sometimes the 15 min. its almost always one of the two.
     
    #26     Mar 27, 2011
  7. I commend you for sharing your analysis, but to give people an idea of methodology accuracy, why don't you also share how many trades you have made, what percentage have been correct, and with what stop. Not asking for your profits, balance, or anything like that.
    Just basic results parameters.
     
    #27     Mar 27, 2011
  8. Yeah so far your posts a bit nondescript. You have identified that points of interest on the chart, but at what point do these POI trigger an entry, and where within the entry candle do you get in?
     
    #28     Mar 27, 2011
  9. Wi!s0n

    Wi!s0n

    I noticed that you're using 24 hr pivots. Is this a result of the limitations of your platform indicators or do the "big boys" really use them? It always appears to me the RTH pivots are much more useful. Please comment.
     
    #29     Mar 27, 2011
  10. EsKiller

    EsKiller

    truthfully I don't pay attention to pivots all that much. Just occasionally on the open but thats it.

    So far, I'm just laying down basics. Bits and pieces for now. I'll go into detail later when I lay more basic groundwork.

    In regards to my accuracy, I don't wish to comment and I'd like to leave it at that. If you dont wish to take my advice, then don't. its that simple.

    I'll add more tips later....
     
    #30     Mar 27, 2011