Some thoughts for the USD bears. I was previously very bearish on the USD, as you constantly hear about the printing press, inflation, and random fear mongering about the dollars demise. I started searching thru all these long term charts (fx, equities, bonds), and have come to the conclusion for the near future everything is a trade on the USD. SPY and USD have been trading inversely for some time now. If SPY sells most likely USD will rally. SPY and every other stock market in the world have been trading in tandem for some time. If youâre not comfortable holding SPY, then be cautious holding foreign market. Also note commodities are highly correlated with markets as well. A credit bubble means a debt bubble. USD debt means you are short USD and have to pay back USD in the future, either in cash or thru services valued in USD. This is very bullish for the price of USD. The buying pressure created by these shorts can be huge. USD is still the worldâs reserve currency and a lot of accounts and debts are settled and valued in USD no matter what. If USD rises causing an increasingly bigger debt burden it could create a snowball effect. M1 has been skyrocketing, yet M3 has been decelerating yet still positive. (according to shadow stats). If M3 goes negative then there is no new credit expansion and no inflation. Long term bonds have been stable. With all the rampant inflation expected in the future you would expect to see yields rise. USD may become a carry type trade adding to the reversal spike. It seems to be a very one sided view currently. Too many dollar bears. I can see gold breaking out and some negative pressure on USD, but I cant see USD in freefall. Seems to mean it will either drift down or go vertical. The risk reward isnât good on the short side. Technically it would be very hard to imagine SPY trading much higher and especially not near highs. Inversely if the dollar relation holds, it will look like a major bottom on the USD. Of course things could change. Im waiting to see what kind of drastic steps the govt makes before reversing this opinion.