With regards to MAE / MFE debate, perhaps they can be used as an input for what I am trying to measure. But on its own, it seems incomplete. What I’m trying to do is “handicap” a trade and then subsequently measure how well I’ve done (over time). So I need a way of estimating (1) the odds of risk/return at the time the trade is entered and before I know the results. I do not want to use historical data (well only to help my guess but I do not rely on it). Then after the trade plays out... I could use (2) MAE / MFE to measure against my estimate for (1) to help me determine my “handicapping” accuracy. Does my logic make sense? Is there another measure that is more suitable?
I cannot refute what you are saying. However, I don’t agree with it. There are many traders who have EOD exit parameters. If my exit parameters are fluid but based on a theory and estimate, isn’t that an exist strategy? Why do specific parameters of a trading plan have to be numerically rigid?
Don't you think you are a little bit too negative? After all this is a forum for active traders. You are telling a bunch of kids in an NBA camp training to turn pro to quit trying?
What proportion of the intraday volume is legitimate buying/selling? (Whether by bots or not?) Does anybody know? Wouldn’t real buying/selling have an even bigger price effect as the proportion of bots increases? Just guessing here...I’m no expert on microstructure.
Quick google indicates 80% is program trading? But even if it’s only 30-50% that’s already too much noise from emotionless machines. Human emotions are tradable. Machines are not.
Everything is tradable ... Just like in poker, we are looking for tells. If the volume may cause change in price, it's real no matter what causes it.
in theory yes. to me it's just lower hanging fruit to trade against amateur human beings as their emotions and tendencies are so predictable. I have been tracking the forexIG sentiment for a couple of years... but nowadays I can actually guess the long/short ratio just based on the price movements alone.
The cost of living will keep you in the poor house. In fact, if you make 1k per month while living in San Francisco...you'll be homeless or sleeping in your van that's coverted into mobile house. I guess you forgot about the cost of living (e.g. food, rent, taxes, student loans and many other typical things we hear about in the media). This is why I've been saying for about 10 years now...the markets is slowly becoming a market for the rich. Small guy will no longer be able to play nor grow any small account. wrbtrader
Of course there are many traders with an end of day exit parameter...if they're profitable why are you not trying to duplicate thteir exit strategy when in fact you stated you trade with no profit targets ? wrbtrader
oh i meant saving $1k a month and throw into qqq... (related to an earlier post)... a market for the rich - true in 2 ways. - technology has enabled ever fast accumulation of wealth to the top of the pyramid; - after the 2000 and 2008 crash, the public participation in stocks has been low by historical standards... and therefore the ownership is concentrated towards the institutions, and corporate insiders.