After ten days away from trading it was good to pull the first trade off around 7am. The character of the market is the same, used one of the techniques from the play book. CL meandered up into the open, got hit for 20-25 points and started moving up in a very choppy fashion. This kind of market is good to me and I was basically done for the day around 10am. I had a feeling we would go for the recent swing highs but I did not trade it from the long side but sold extension moves for a few points. Also sold when we popped over 73.19 but got out quickly and was flat for the rest of the day while the market tanked 200 points. It sound insane but for me withdrawing from trading was the best thing to do. A good day's gains can slip away or turn into losses and I used to beat myself up for it. This has been the hardest to master, to quit while I am ahead. It is not about good or bad luck, it is about losing focus and clarity at some point in the day. I noticed something that happened more then once before. When the market ramped up to 73.19 and popped over it it was only good for a couple of ticks. Looks like there were no great buy stops, no urgency to buy. The rest is history. GC
I do not take positions in CL, I am only scalping, but I like to have an idea where the market is trying to go. There is a six day trading range with the top at 73.30 (Sept). On the 60 min chart it looks like a HS bottom - if the top would be taken out . Yesterday the market was trying to get over 72.50 and it only broke it after hours. I am sure tropical storm Dean is helping this market and it is likely today it will exceed 73.30. Then what? It should run up to 76, 77. If the market does not run after a breakout with the Hurricane winds (no pun intended) behind it then watch out. Yesterday I was off the beam from the beginning, by the end of the day I was up twenty points but still net down due to commissions. All in all on a day when a scalper looses money and it tis not dramatic they should be happy. While I was in vacation I have read an incredible book which - while trading is not even mentioned - is very applicable: Stress for Success by James E. Loehr, a sport pchyhologist. I almost did not read it because of the corny title but I am so glad I did. (I bought it on Half.com) It sheds an entirely new light on stress and how an athlete, businessman athlete or for that matter trading athlete can live with it in a healthy way and harness it to their advantage in the competitive environment. There are many amazing examples and exercises but one distinction I got out of it is worth the price of the book many times. He is elaborating how much harder it is for the corporate athlete compared to the sports world athlete because of the longer hours involved and the difficulty of fitting into the system. Well, how about independent traders? We have the shortest hours -most days I am done before noon- and no bosses or coworkers to get along with and if we take losses there are many opportunities to recover quickly. I have gained a new appreciation for being a scalper. GC
There is important support at the 70.00 level this market better hold. Basically the surprise would be even more down. Interesting dynamic, the weather background and scared bulls. After I finished for the day I have been watching the action on the DOM. I don't like it because the dancing numbers mesmerize me and I lose sense of price momentum ( I am sure many people do well trading with it). For scalping it is useless because huge orders show up and scare the daylite out of the trader and they disappear or get traded through as if there were not even there. Prefer seeing actual transactions, not individual numbers but the volume bar and OBV. GC
The general liquidation in the markets, how does it affect the energy futures? It would be already priced in. No? Comments welcome. Oops, I made my first trade selling at 79 against the swing high and taking it back at 75. No doubt the action will be in ER2 today. Yesterday it had traveled $12000 between 8 am and 4pm. GC
The weekend is coming up, one should expect the trendline on the 60 min chart around 73.20 to be broken, additional resistance around 74. After that who knows? I had a great morning and I am not going to give it back, I am migrating over to ER2 for a few hours. Monday I'll start trading the Oct. contract. GC
Trading October. When the market does not behave as expected look out. I bought Nat Gas fifteen minutes after the dramatic gap down opening on Sunday evening for a gap fill attempt but it did not pop enough, it was flatlining for hours, so at 4 am Monday I let it go for a 36 point profit . After that NG dropped hundreds of points in short order. I was cautious Monday in CL but off the beam, ended net down on the day mainly because of placing a couple of orders incorrectly due to sleepiness. We all know it, one should not drive or trade when sleepy, but I still do it. Tuesday turned out better. (There are several ways to improve one's performance, finding better trading vehicles, learning new techniques and tactic, unlearning bad habits. Right now I am working on shedding bad habits.) Now that the daily up trend line and the horizontal support around 70 have been broken the market should trade irregularly lower. This is the obvious scenario. But, since the seasonals are pointing irregularly higher into mid-October and the H season is not over yet a choppy market is more likely. Regards, GC
What a boring session. light volume chop. Have you guys seen the size traders coming in lately? 500 lots left and right. theyre trading out too. hopefully a little action tomorrow after 2 dull days. Only action yesterday was catching the short after inventories.