Cheers, Snoop! All are welcome to join us on SI today. We're having some fun daytrading this op-ex mess! Currently long RIMM, TASR and URBN. TC
Dr. Stoxx, I could not help but notice that your "Performance" is only updated through the beginning of March. Was the past month particulalry bad?
Hi Harris, No, the reasons we haven't updated since early March is that we just had a baby (a girl) and my wife, who is my only employee (!!) and who does all the admin. has been quite busy lately. Hope that explains things. The BTTT Daily Newsletter has been doing quite well recently, but this follows 6 weeks of drawdowns where I was just off my game. Here are the latest trades in that Newsletter: MARCH/APRIL, 2004 TRADES 818. PCLN long: +1.46/+6.6% 819. CREE long: +1.17/+5.0% 820. ACF long: +1.00/+5.5% 821. CLS short: +0.55/+3.1% 822. SNDK short: +2.65/+9.3% 823. QLGC short: +1.39/+3.2% 824. RD short: +1.00/+2.0% 825. FAST short: +3.15/+6.5% 826. CHPC long: +0.14/+1.9% 827. VRSN long: -0.94/-5.8% 828. CCBL long: +0.31/+2.4% 829. MANU long: -0.16/-2.5% 830. GMST long: +0.13/+2.0% 831. SWIR long: +1.68/+5.5% 832. JPM long: +0.62/+1.5% 833. JNPR long: -1.92/-7.4% 834. PCAR short: -0.23/-0.4% 835. ATML long: +0.09/+1.5% 836. NVDA short: -1.10/-4.9% 837. GTW long: +0.11/+2.0% 838. FMT long: +0.83/+3.0% 839. ETR short: -1.15/-2.0% 840. PETM long: +1.37/+5.4% 841. CREE long: +1.67/+7.9% 842. ELN long: +0.50/+2.5% 843. ADI long: +0.72/+1.5% 844. PCLE long: +0.45/+5.0% 845. TXU long: +0.44/+1.4% 846. TKTX long: -0.12/-0.7 847. NFLX long: +1.72/+5.0% 848. SOHU short: -0.90/-3.5% 849. HLR long: +0.65/+3.5% 850. NOVL long: +0.28/+2.3% 851. STT long: -0.20/-0.1% 852. SNDK long: +2.10/+6.8% 853. PCLE long: +0.24/+2.6% 854. RRI long: +0.07/+0.7% ============================== Cumulative %age Gain: +1,285% (NEW ALLTIME HIGH!!) Stock Trade Wins: 619 Stock Trade Losses: 235 Winning Percentage: 72.6% The Master the Trade Newsletter took 2 losses recently which has pulled us down a bit, but up till then has been doing well. Here is it's latest updating (which we haven't yet posted to the website, since I'm not sure how to do this myself!!): 67 LONG PCS Mar 17-04 $8.65 Mar 24-04 $8.75 1.16% $283.65 $24,677.39 $49,354.79 394% 68 LONG GMST Mar 23-04 $6.67 Mar 29-04 $6.92 3.75% $924.94 $25,139.86 $50,279.73 403% 69 LONG UCOMA Mar 26-04 $7.60 Mar 30-04 $8.42 10.79% $2,712.46 $26,496.09 $52,992.19 430% 70 SHORT NOVL Mar 31-04 $11.32 Apr 2-04 $12.39 -9.45% $(2,504.49) $25,243.85 $50,487.70 405% 71 LONG BEAS Apr 2-04 $12.85 Apr 15-04 $12.42 -3.35% $(844.74) $24,821.48 $49,642.96 396% The QQQ-Reversal Newsletter has struggled recently, as it usually does around major market reversals. I'll post an update on closed trades once I've updated the master sheet. Hope that helps, TC
Interesting, someone used my post but did not have the courtesy of notifying me. Dr. Stoxx and I disagree on how one should measure success or failure. I contend that if one signs up for a newsletter and pays for advice, then ALL of that advice should be taken into account when measuring sucess. As I stated, if Dr. Stoxx calls 10 situations for trading and only 7 (70%) of these called situations actually trigger trades then the whole population (10) of called situations should be the measure. Dr. Stoxx prefers to work off of only part of the statistics; the called situations that actually trigger trades. It is a fine point, but one pays for ALL of the advice, and a situation that does not trigger a trade is IMHO a loss to the guy that called the trade. So if you look at ALL of the 'picks' Dr Stoxx calls only 40 to 50 percent result in winning trades. If you look at the 'picks' that do result in trades then yes, Dr Stoxx is correct ~70% are 'winners.' Take your pick, how do you measure success of a paid subscription to a newsletter? Next someone needs to carefully look at actual recent returns. Dr Stoxx publishes fantasic numbers which reflect the returns on the newsletters since inception. He does not break out the yearly returns for these services. Of the last 12 months or more I would say his returns have been only average. Finally one needs to understand that most of the trades that are winners range from 0.0% to 3% returns. Only a very few trades bring +4% returns.
Sorry pal, but you got it all wrong. The guy is running a newsletter and not a psychic hotline. He gives you his picks and his projected targets and stop-losses that he might change and he does if the market warrants it. He cannot guarantee that all his picks will trigger or even that all his targets will be reached. That's the nature of this business. If you are not comfortable with that, try something that Sylwia Browne has to offer and we will see how much more successful you are going to be.
LOL! Funny how zealous & fervent the reply!? Dr Stoxx does have quite a cult-like band of followers. {Problem is the reply did not address the FACTS of the previous post. } But the point proffered is that Dr Stoxx advertises a 70% success rate, which is only part true. The other part is that, if you include ALL of his picks, his success rate is only about 50% ( or the same probability as flipping coin ). For me, when hiring a finacial advisor, I prefer truth in advertising using ALL of the facts and not just the parts that make the advertiser look good. So if you want those kind of odds, 'colored' and spun in a particular way, go for it and join his newsletter. Just go in with your eyes open. Are they warming the snake oil for you?
Hubris you are really tough. I don't subscribe to Dr Stoxx and have no idea if you can make money with his service, but if I was subscribed I would not care about the calls which do not trigger. The only thing that matters are the calls that affect your account; to that end my only question would be whether an individual can duplicate the trading record shown by Stoxx. In my experience it can be tough duplicate anyone elses record - slippage, capital required for multiple positions and other things can significantly degrade actual results - but thats a completely different issue.
I started to reply "WHY IN THE F*** WOULD STOXX INCLUDE TRADES THAT DIDN'T TRIGGER IN HIS SUCCESS/LOSS RATE?? DO YOU INCLUDE TRADES YOU CONSIDER BUT DON'T MAKE IN YOUR TAXES?" But that would have been just way over the top, vulgar even, so I didn't. I thin the truth is you developed a silly position and are now stubbornly sticking with it.