Shorting AUD/JPY Conservative estimate 66 Optimistic estimate 64 Overly optimistic estimate <64 Shorting NZD/JPY Conservative estimate 54 Optimistic Estimate <53 but >51 Overly optimistic estimate <51 Timeframe for both within 10 days.
Threads like these always get crickets, but it is worth pointing out that *BOTH* conservative estimates were attained in less than 48 hours...
Good calls! You're selling rallies, I'm buying dips, hey who needs a broker we could take each other's trades and both make money (ps what's a cricket, is that one of those little chirping things?)
crickets is when a thread gets no replies. (Usually they get 2-3 replies but other than that nobody is ever impressed) In about 5 minutes traderzones will show up and tell us that we should only trade with a demo account for 20 years and only then play with our lunch money as capital.
lol, TraderZ is a little bit lost bless him, all he has left is finding fault with the way other people make money, then he throws his dummy out when no-one pays any attention! Yeah why is it that very few people are impressed by other's trading prowess and accurate analysis, it must be a psychological thing. If I see someone making good calls I want to know how they did it! So.....how did you arrive at your analysis to short Aud and Nzd vs Yen? Technical? Fundamental? Combination? All I can see fundamentally in the short term is Eur (ECB and Trichet), Yen, and Chf (intervention) weakness and Aud (commodities) strength! ------------------------- March 30 (Bloomberg) Futures traders reversed bets that the Australian dollar will decline against the greenback, holding the largest net long position since August, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 8,413 on March 24, compared with net shorts of 419 a week earlier. Investors are the most bullish on Australian and New Zealand dollars since 2003 with Aberdeen Asset Management, Hermes Pension Management Ltd. and Kokusai Global Sovereign Open Fund betting that spending on commodities will increase as central banks print unprecedented amounts of cash to rescue their economies. Investors should buy the Australian dollar against the euro as it may rise to the strongest since November, Barclays Capital said in a note to clients today. The currency, which traded at A$1.9354 per euro, should be bought on dips as it may rise as high as A$1.85 in three months, Barclays said. Australiaâs currency may erase this monthâs losses versus New Zealandâs and rise as high as NZ$1.2931, Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney wrote. It traded at NZ$1.2160 and has lost 4.7 percent in March. ----------------------------
My trading philosophy is always the same regardless of financial instrument. I am a technical positional trader exclusively on the short side. My time frame is >1 day to 2 weeks roughly. I could go up to a month but that is not optimal. I look at financial instruments (forex only nowadays) that either go up too fast or have prolonged upswings. Then I react to either a bearish engulfing, a falling star, a hanging man, doji or dark cloud cover. With jpy crosses I reasoned many of them are "ripe" but some of them already "popped" (see chf/jpy)
nice article cable, funny I'm short aussie from .7021 letting the "fat tail" portion of my trade ride.
Our strategy is similar, mind you I don't just trade short and I rarely hold a trade for more than a day or two at most (usually 5-10 minutes!), and I don't use candlesticks......on second thoughts our strategies aren't that similar after all! Whatever you're doing it's obviously working but I'm sure our friend will tell you it's not!
Nice trade, you could have let me know! Hey milktruck don't you owe me a couple of beers? I can't remember what the bet was now, something to do with USD and EUR wasn't it, but I'm sure I won it anway