To most of you: It is gratifying to know you are out there. Without intelligent, thoughtful, critical thinkers like you participating in the world's financial markets, where would I be? I don't want to convince you of anything. Please do not change your world view. Carry on as before. Good luck in the markets. Best Regards, Steve46
Dear BVM88 as you can see, old stevie has made the erroneous correlation between his status on ET and his ability as a trader. Anyone who feels the need to express the above to the world at large has a serious complex. He chooses to live in a world other crave the sucess he thinks he has, thanks to thier manifest failures. We're just not worthy, are we Stevie, you tosser.
I should have read all your postings before I wrote my last one, an error that will no doubt please stevie as evidence of my inferiority. Your last statement above, in brackets displays clearly what you do not understand beyond your text book education. This is why BVM88 is so absolutley right. If they are the ones owning the priniting presses, then they are the ones who, as the need arrises, wil just start prinitng more and more money. And guess what arsehole, more money in the same system equals less value. The treasuries you are recommending are backed by this. Yea, great. I'll tell you one thing though. It's fine to have opionions - that's what we all do for a living. But quit trying to tell everyone they are thick as pig shit will you, or that they are unsucessful little turds who should not grace your presance. I ve seen you do this on a number of different threads, and franky it's fucking tedious. You may well be the most sucessful trader in the world, I may have two cocks, but at the end of the day your continued efforts to outshine others by denigrating them leave me with only one conclusion. You have very very little self esteem, and you know it. Once again I suggest you sod off. And no, I can't spell presance - but who cares.
SO I'm reading through this and couldn't help but agree with Steve, there are interesting people out there. The US has never defaulted on any debt, from the first long bond in 1799 to the present - ( Yes, they did start issuing long bonds way back then and get this, the average yield on a long bond is 4.70 % not including Flower Bonds ). Currency is not debt. Failure to convert dollars to gold does not constitute a default. The site http://www.uncle-scam.com/Breaking/jan-04/br-7.html is a joke. Bonds do carry call provisions. If the issuer does call a bond, it does not mean they are defaulting. Also refinancing is not a sin. Laddering bonds is wise. That is all at this time from atop the mountain.
If Buffett's "cash" assets are in short term liquid instruments of other countries then he is not in cash, he is speculating in currencies relative to the basis of the Hathaway share price in U.S. Dollars. To others who have posted with regards to the safety of U.S. Treasury securities, investment safety is a relative concept. While it is true the U.S. government could default on a security, there is no safer investment in the world with regards to U.S. currency. If you argue against that statement then you are merely arguing against ownership of U.S. currency, not the safety of the return of principal in U.S. Dollars. Most U.S. citizens do not hold foreign assets and are perfectly content to keep cash assets in U.S. Dollar denominated instruments. They don't care about the movement of the Euro or the Yen or the Mark up or down against the dollar. Short term CASH is kept in instruments with regard to the safe return of principal in U.S. Dollars. Other instruments (currencies, stocks, long bonds, real estate, etc.) are considered not as safe or not risk free with regards to the return of principal in U.S. Dollars but are used with higher risk money in an attempt at obtaining a higher return on investment. I hope those here arguing against the safety of U.S. Treasury securities can understand and grasp these basic concepts.
IB offers 8% notes that they redeem every 3 months. Does anyone have an opinion on these notes or used them? -James
Assuming that the purpose of holding US Dollars is to exchange them at a future date for something else, it would follow that return of principal in US Dollars is irrelevant if (in the future) they are not accepted for payment for something else. I could invest in chocolate bar wrappers, but if no one is willing to accept them as payment for something else, then the fact that my investment in chocolate bar wrappers does not yield a negative return is of little solace.
There are several risks with US government securities - the government could default, introduce punitive taxation on capital or interest, or high inflation could occur. TIPS mitigate the latter problem (although you still have CPI accuracy risk) but not the first two. Discussion of whether the US defaulted in the past is irrelevant. The fact is that it is *possible* they could default in the future. Besides, default is not the main risk. More likely is that a combination of taxation and inflation will result in negative real return. In fact, this is happening currently with t-bills. Needless to say, a negative return is impossible for a risk free investment. Therefore, since t-bills have generated negative real returns, they cannot be risk free.