Some ideas for today if its bullish...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ShadowTrader_08, Aug 5, 2008.

  1. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

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    Good morning, Traders. Today is a "fed day" and as such there's probably going to be a big move in the afternoon. As much as we wanted to be clear of at least the 1260 area (and moving onwards to the 1290 resistance) in the S&P yesterday, it didn't happen as the mid-day recovery was eviscerated in the final hour. So we are back at the trendline which created yesterday's intraday bounce. If we are to get it going to the upside its either going to happen today or not. Let's take one last look down the rabbit hole....

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="">

    Here's the plan if everything doesn't fall apart. Since we've been saying that the technical picture points to a short term upswing here to about 1305, the plan is a bullish one. The S&P will need to move above 1260 in early trade today for this to set itself up. The hourly chart below shows why this area is important.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="">

    So above you have the technical picture, now what to do with it. If we can get at least consolidation (but preferably strength) into the Fed, we'll be looking to scatter longs into four areas. Railroads, Banks, the broad market, and 1-2 "wild cards" which will be "big beta movers" as we like to call them. These are the highly fundamentally rated stocks that are showing good relative strength and pack a good deal of bang for the buck when the market decides to lurch forward. Below is a partial "wish-list" of some things we would like to put in our shopping cart.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="">

    <b>NSC</b> is in the railroads sector ($DJUSRR) which is showing a lot of relative strength recently.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="">
    You can use <b>IYF</b> as a proxy for banking sector. You'll note that charts of <b>BAC, C, MTB</b>, etc. all look similar.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="">

    This is an "Ultra" etf for the S&P. Note that in this tight range there is only about $1.30 difference between yesterday's high and low. A move over yesterday's high would be an excellent entry with a stop below the low as shown above.

    <img border=5 width=560 height=650 src="">

    <b>TDY</b> is an example of a "big beta mover" we would be interested in. <b>HUBG</b> is another one that has glowing fundamentals and a strong pattern.

    As with everything we do, note that waiting for confirmation is key, <i>especially</i> on a fed day. One strategy which will probably come into play for us today is the use of the buy stop if the market is just consolidating ahead of the 2:15pm EST announcement. Our thought is that if the news pushes the market hard up over these pivot points, the technical buying should kick in and it won't come back down immediately. Certainly yesterday's late day pounding hurts the odds that the reversal will occur but as we're not long yet it really doesn't matter. If we get no upside setup, and the news (or whatever reason) pushes the market to close below 1234, then abandon hopes of a summer rally all ye who enter.

    Our main thread is here:
  2. 50_Bip


    What are your thoughts on Teldar Paper?
  3. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

  4. ShadowTrader_08

    ShadowTrader_08 ET Sponsor

    Thanks Nkhoi!

    It kind of bugs me when people call my posts spam. Rather funny considering:

    1. I posted exactly what I thought would happen in the markets about 12 hours before they opened.

    2. Exactly what I said would happen did.

    3. I gave setups with entries and stops in specific stocks and indices to show newbies exactly what to do.

    4. Backed it up with real-time emails with timestamps showing that I sent alerts to our subscribers at the same time I was buying in real-time.

    5. For this I charge a whopping $1.00 per trading day

    But I guess since we're ET sponsors that pretty much makes anything I post spam.

    There seem to be so many people on this board who are looking to learn something yet when its placed right in front of them with a bow on top its virtually ignored. I guess "why aren't there more women traders" and endlessly debating whether or not that Puretick guy is for real or whatever is more important than the actual markets...

    I'll continue to post free pieces of the newsletter on our main thread here:
  5. I removed the troll. Feel free to message me when someone else decides to try to derail your thread.

  6. ShadowTrader 08,

    Don't let attacks on you bug you.

    If you do you will not last very long here. There are about a dozen weirdos who have nothing to do all day but assume that anyone who advertises on ET is a spam artist.

    If anything, I would advise you to take about a couple of hours per week and engage these mental midgets.

    It adds to business. I would do it every week if I had the time. And now I am thinking of hiring one of the local high school kids to write a rebuttal to sudso, mandrilbreath, suzzypig, bahbahblacksheepbinger and all the rest of the gang.

    Look at the time some of these "traders?" spend all day posting their ravings. On one day a couple of months ago sudso posted 42 messages an average of one every 9 minutes.

    Guess that clown doesn't do much trading but has the time to be jealous of professional traders.


    Alex L. Wasilewski
    Co-Founder & Head Trader
    Trades That Work
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