I know Dow 3000 seems ridiculous now, however: 1. SP500 earnings of $33, and a 10x PE = Dow 3000. (Current SP trailing earns = $56) 2. The Tech Wreck of a few years back... the Naz lost 78%. 3. The Nikkei recently made a new low... -82%.... and that's 19 YEARS after the high. It's happened before. It can happen again. It COULD be happening in the Dow this time. I could see lower than Dow 3000 if the depression scenario plays out for a few-to-several years... Hope I'm wrong..
Gnome....really like your comments... I know Dow 3000 seems ridiculous now, however: 1. SP500 earnings of $33, and a 10x PE = Dow 3000. (Current SP trailing earns = $56) 2. The Tech Wreck of a few years back... the Naz lost 78%. 3. The Nikkei recently made a new low... -82%.... and that's 19 YEARS after the high. It's happened before. It can happen again. It COULD be happening in the Dow this time. I could see lower than Dow 3000 if the depression scenario plays out for a few-to-several years... Hope I'm wrong.. ....................................................................................... And guess what percent one has to make ......after one loses 75%....just to be even.....one has to make $25 to $100.... And look at what happens...to the so called safer bonds......if there is a knee jerk currency issue.....lets say par 3 mean.....moving to a 11 par mean...... Have you seen the numbers on the actual losses from the World's stock and bond exchanges......? Just how many trillions is it ? ........................................................................ This is why I am hopeful that a world wide stock exchange can be established with direct access universal accounts in the currency/language of your choice...with the factuals from information only sources....because debt will never make it back.... BATS has made the case.... ...................................................................... Also....Nobam is leaning heavy on the head of DE Shaw....you know that they have sophisticated stock trading models in place.....seems like this guy would want to be kind to this sector.....
All of this couldn't have come at a worse time. Boomers are getting ready to retire and most have lost 50% of their equity market assets. Also, housing equity is lower... so that's a diminshed source of possible retirement income. And, Boomers would like to sell their larger homes and downsize... and use the balance from the sale to supplement retirement income. All of this is in jeopardy now... Bummer, man...
Gnome All of this couldn't have come at a worse time. Boomers are getting ready to retire and most have lost 50% of their equity market assets. Also, housing equity is lower... so that's a diminshed source of possible retirement income. And, Boomers would like to sell their larger homes and downsize... and use the balance from the sale to supplement retirement income. All of this is in jeopardy now... Bummer, man... ...................................................................... Sometimes knowing what has to occur given the demgraphics becomes real even though one does not like it...... This is what makes the difference.....moving before the fact versus after the event has occured........ ................................................................................. Man....this is time for capitalism to take hold......this is how you make it back and then some..... We need some big ideas and some big winners........soon.....This will be the fastest way to get back..... This socialistic shit can really slow things down...... You have to have the right people......with the right ideas.... The DE Shaw person could be the next Sec Treas..... The new stock exchange....accessible information......world wide seamless access....almost no cost..... Would set things on fire buddy....... Man where the idea lives would not make a difference......People would be all over it ....from all over the world..... For one simple reason..... $10 can go....to $100.......
Dow 3000 is actually quite a ways from my perceived "worst case". It is not a viable consideration at this time, but could become so with not too much more weakness. IF (big IF) it comes to pass, those who decide to "buy and ride it out at Dow 3000" will suffer nearly as much as those who have held all along. If I give that projection, you won't believe your eyes.... I can hardly conceive of it myself. (But I always remember the words of Mr. Spock... "When all other possibilities have been eliminated, what remains MUST be the truth... regardless of how illogical it may seem.") And I REALLY hope all of this is wrong...