Some Fundamental Thoughts

Discussion in 'Trading' started by pspr, Nov 22, 2003.

  1. pspr


    It seems to me that the stock market has stalled the last couple of months possibly due to the steel trade tariffs, China trade tariffs and the threatened retaliation from China and European countries to these tariffs.

    If the trade problems escalate, then the economic recovery might be derailed and this is the primary concern facing the market right now.

    So, it seems there are two possible out comes in the short term.

    A) The U.S. doesn't back down and the trade war escalates sending the market lower as another economic slowdown is anticipated. Or

    B) The U.S. lifts the steel tariffs, the other countries back down and the market resumes the rally quite abruptly. However, I don't have a feel for how the China trade problem might get resolved in the short term but it is secondary to the other steel tariff problem.

    Personally, I feel that B is the most likely scenario.