Some DD about NMX's Evaluation

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by goldsun, Nov 20, 2006.

  1. goldsun



    As we know that every seat of NYMEX is bundled with 90k shares of NMX, and from the close price in NOV17,$133/share, every seat has a value of about 12M USD.

    Of course, $133/share is a very high price, based on the conventional profit methodology. But seems this methodology is not proper for NMX's evaluation.


    Two reasons:

    1,Major Reason

    For an individual seat, under such a hot market, even 20M per seat is not very high, because the money to buy seat will not be consumed as we buy food or other consumer goods. It is a kind of investing ------ Liquidity is guaranteeing this. Why?Under the organization of memberships, one can not easily liquidate his seat, but under the organization as a share-held company, it can be easily liquidated thru NYSE or other public makets.(together with 90000 shares)

    From the major reason I addressed above, we must think about a receivable price of a seat when we are evaluating the value of the shares of NMX.

    2,Minor Reason

    This reason is more intrinsic for the current evaluation methodology.

    Now, the intrinsic value is not only depending on the profitability of a company, but also depending on the persistence and surviving ability in the future.Even NMX can not earn as much as other kind of companies, it can survive as the best energy exchange.



    Conventional P/E methods can not be dominant in our evaluation, although still important.Therefore, personally, I can not say $150/share even $200/share is a HYPE.Although at $200/share, the P/E would be over 100.