Discussion in 'Economics' started by Stockolio, Jan 10, 2019.
If you haven't read the debt crisis book, very good reading. Gives you ideas on what to look for on a macro level.
I did not read it, but likely should eventually
''you saw a shift''-Ray Dallo said.If QQQ close up this week+ looks like it may; shift to the upside.Larry Williams ,early morning of last strong jobs report noted ''sees no bear'' in DOW,because of the record employment/charts.He maybe right but last 20 years DOW/DIA tends to go down, JAN. NOT a prediction;DIA is still below 50dma,200day moving average.
SDOW is still barely above 50dma,lunch now ,but that is still bear move/trend.
Video was from end November 2018. Germany and Italy in recession officially once January numbers are in, China has been on QE non stop for years and about to enter a recession by definition. I live in Vancouver where China's economy is felt the most then anywhere else in the world, there is serious panic in the Chinese stores and Community ( which is almost all of Vancouver ), Real Estate has been plummeting and will keep decelerating, they finally realized you cannot take on debt for ever as a consumer, what happens next for them since they cannot service debt anymore ? Brexit might not happen with politicians finding loop holes to stay it seems, but social unrest will cause chaos, and finally as Ray said, you stop credit you stop the Economy, credit freeze is happening in Corporate Bonds, all the smoke screen of Powell giving a speech once a week now claiming they wont raise rates anymore, or those who claim trade treaty will have everything rosy again, are in for a serious surprise by beginning February... Not many people saw the 08 recession, plenty of people seeing this one tho!
Oh shit you're right, the corporate credit squeeze is happening (on purely relative terms).
%% Good points; still up to date.
Saw a shift in QQQ past 3 weeks+also OCT-DEC 2018;
+ now weekly+ dailys on QQQ. Another change in QQQ, last 2 days; gapped up went/closed up, gapped down, went/closed up. May close up this week-not a predicition
Canada has been in the news for overpriced real estate[on the charts]; did they raise RE taxes on aliens again.Alien is not an insult ;its a legal status of non citizens ??LOL
If the data is right, $2.7 million for average West Vancover home seems parabolic, like parabolic stop + reverse.LOL
Vancover median =$773,ooo. But that is common big difference , location, location,location same city, JAN 2019.
I know few people in RE around here, new apartment buildings construction isn't doing too bad cause most pre prepaid but I wonder how that is gonna shape going forward with most buyers trying to back out now due to on going decline in asset price. The worrying one is actual sales of existing homes, it basically stopped. Chinese borrow money in China, smuggle it into Canada and start a life, anybody and everybody in China is paper rich, 1 Million + USD loans for anybody with a pulse and a business plan, they spend that money to live not to pursue business interest half the times! Being from Vancouver, I have the beat on what is going on in China from friends and society in general, not phony media and believe me, it is pretty much the doom, they are collapsing like no other country ever has. There banks and people are massively indebted, but why it is so crushing, a lot of international manufacturers are slowly moving out, people are losing there jobs and civilians living of bank loans... It is starting to crack pretty hard, and I wonder, where is the bottom for them ? There bogus fiscal data try to portray a " strong " China to the world, but they are already at the 08 recession point
Says it all...
When most USa banks foreclose on real estate-they sell for anything/cheap + sue borrower for difference. And one year they forgave the RE debt, but IRS [ US taxing authority] considers that income + they WILL get tax on the debt forgiveness
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