Solar Bounce Coming

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by $CostAverageMAN, Mar 10, 2008.

  1. From Notable Calls Today:

    Citigroup & Piper Jaffray comment on Solars
    The solar & poly stocks are in for a wild ride this morning as we have two firms out with pretty significant comments (opposing views):

    - Citigroup notes Spain is the world's second-largest solar market, and strong Spanish solar growth has been driven by generous solar feed-in tariffs from the Socialist-led government. Firm expects that reelection of the Socialist Party will result in more favorable solar tariff policies post the current policy's expiration on 30 September 2008. The new Spanish solar tariff and installation cap will be announced in May timeframe.

    Given the significant share price declines of the solar sector in the last several weeks, they would not be surprised to see a relief rally for the group over coming sessions. Sees Suntech (NYSE:STP) and Yingli (NYSE:YGE) as main beneficiaries due to their exposure to Spanish mkt.

    - Piper Jaffray notes a very damaging article (and pictures) appeared in the Washington Post on Sunday March 9 which highlighted one of the problems with poorly designed Chinese poly plants. Some plants in China, like Luoyang Zhonggui (a supplier to STP, LDK and CSIQ) cannot recycle the byproducts back into the process (toxic silicon tetrachloride) and the article claims the company has been dumping the unrecyclable chemicals back into the land.

    Firm speculates it could poise some supply risk if the plant production is scaled back. They believe the primary customer of Luoyang is STP (over half of Luoyang output) and to a lesser extent LDK and CSIQ. We have confirmed that the local supplier to Yingli (Xinguang) is recycling its byproduct (thus it does not pollute) and additionally YGE relies on mostly foreign poly suppliers (Wacker and MEMC). JA Solar (JASO) does not rely on Chinese poly suppliers currently.

    I like them all for a trade today...

  2. Just opened these positions in the last few minutes.....


    Hope I catch the bounce into the close where I will decide to hold or not....

    On a side Note the CME at 470.10, NYX @57.31, ICE@122.74 all just opened as well
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  3. Bootsie


    Damn you're good. I picked up some LDK and ESLR today. Starters that it...


    :) :D
  4. you are very smart and I commend you.

    the two names I really like are YGE and JASO.

    those are guaranteed home runs for the next few years.
  5. I don't know $Cost you are dancing with the devil here in solar land. My two last remaining holdings are ENER & EMKR.... luckily good money was made off the rest of your group most of which i have owned at one time or another. The bigger question might be- will oil suddenly drop $20 and what effect will that have on the group vs whatever government put back goes into the tax rebate situation that congress recently passed on for solar. As momentum trades these are done and bounces will be short lived if the economy is as bad as they are saying... oil must come down hard. As long term plays a couple are interesting including the fabulously expensive WFR & FSLR.

    Glad to have you back posting. ~ stoney
  6. why not SOLF? is there something wrong with this stock. just dropped below the support.

    havent been really following solar much
  7. bradstal


    I agree that solars are int he picture in the long run, but currently we are in a bear market and paying $180 for the best of the crop such as FSLR is not really a good idea (i like the stock long term). This stock is headed down if you ask me, i'll grab some when it reaches 120 or so.

    I already have april 160 puts that i picked up last week when it was around $210 and not planning to sell yet.
  8. 007Arb


    What about AMAT in the solar field? This stock has defied the bear market and last week announced the largest solar contract ever given out to any solar company. Apparently their solar business is growing leaps and bounds.
  9. That fed news should help the whole market and with these high beta names in the portfolio today, I may have a good day....Kind of glad I didn't get my little bounce yesterday, cause I probably would of closed the positions....

    Bring on a bounce in the IAI today.....I thought that may of been a new bottom for this ETF yesterday.....

    You know me guys always buying before a DOW up 250 day.....Just kidding...but another good call...I hope

    (AMAT was already owned...thats why no mention....SOLF looked at it, but couldn't pull the trigger)

    On a side note: just got stopped out of my FX Yen position....This could reverse back to 106-108 level......

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  10. $COST the oil decline has begun. The last few days the talking heads and market pros have been piling folks into natural gas so that is where I went negative yesterday, today I would lean on the oil plays and they are ripe for a big fall and the money is rotated into other areas.... This will not hamper solar stocks until the press picks up on oil's fall... a quick $20 pullback ought to get their attention. ~ stoney
    #10     Mar 11, 2008