**NOW** is the time to buy the basket. If the prices go much higher, then there will be a **huge** breakout. My target price on SOLF is 22 dollars. It may even go higher. The prices might look expensive, but trust me, this is the best time right now. Once Solf starts closing over 17 then its will start breaking out huge.
This is an update on the solar basket. WFR's earnings call was taken as bad. WFR- WFR is going to retrace. There are 3 possible retracement points. 54.62, 47.53, or 40.5. Im betting on 54.62. FSLR- Im going back on my guidance. I feel the stock is in a B.A.R.F. formation. If it breaks the secondary trend line, then the stock is going MUCH lower. As long as it stays on the secondary trend line, then we should be fine. That trend line sits around 60 right now. If FSLR bounces off of 60 then you should buy it, if it goes through 60 then you should sell it. If it makes it through the trend line, then the possible stopping points are 43 and 31 or lower. JASO- If it bounces off of 26.25, then thats a bullish sign. Buy it. SOLF- The line in the sand is 15.82. It cannot, cannot go 1 cent lower. If it bounces off that point, then my target price is 17.40. At 17.40, the price will either decide to bounce off the top trend line or go right through it. If it goes through it, then its probably going to 20-22 range. TSL- I think Trina will retrace to 60. If it bounces off of 60, then it will be a bullish sign. Buy it. CSIQ- JUNK JUNK JUNK. DO NOT BUY. ESLR- If it retraces to 9, chart unhealthy, dont buy. If it retraces to 10, then buy it.
One more thing I would like to add. Notice how all the solar stocks went down today right before WFR's earnings. I saw no strength in the charts AT ALL. This tells me that the WFR earnings report leaked. This isnt a bad sign however. A selloff before an earnings report limits downside risk when it does come out. However, the bad news is that someone leaked the report. Why would these solar stocks that everyone was jumping on 5 days ago sell-off? So you know that when you see a solar stock selling off before the report, the earnings report will probably be bad.
WOW! My basket of solar turned into a basket of junk. I have not looked at the charts fully, but it appears that the selloff was on relatively low-volume. This may sound like a bullish sign, but last selloff from 17 to 12 and change also occurred on similiar low volume. Im not certain of the reasons as to why it sold off like it did. Was it the WFR earnings call? I read the press release and it seemed bullish to me yet the analysts downgraded WFR. There was an analyst that upgraded JASO however with a price target in the 30s similiar to my own target. Was it the GDP report? I did see many of the small cap names (other then solar) selling off too. My opinion is that it might have been a combination of the WFR earnings report, the GDP report and just a general trend of moving out of small cap stocks. I have heard nothing but bullish news on solar companies. Some of the solar companies do trade at reasonable P/Es when compared to their growth. It felt like today people were burning their solar stocks in the streets. My entire analysis went out the window. Indeed all the solar stocks traded down at once. Not all of these solar companies are equal however so Im assuming it was way overdone. Hopefully the selling is over and we'll get back to buying the solars. In looking at the chart for SOLF. My gut feeling tells me that its forming the left shoulder of a head and shoulders. You should sell into the next rally upwards or at least half your position in the solars. I figure it *might* bounce off 15 and then rally to 17.5. Then it will turn around to 12.5. Of course, then again, it could just be pulling back and then its next move is to punch through resistance. This is all just guesswork now. I dont think it will break 15 and the selling today was overdone on WFR's report and the GDP numbers. Next week will bring more reports and the buying will begin again. In any event, the safe move would be to sell into any rally 25-50% of your solar position. If you want to chance it and see if it will break resistance be my guest, but I know what the safe move is and the potential for a head and shoulders forming on the chart. Hopefully this is just the handle of the cup and the shoulders of the head/shoulders.
they are all extended..SPWR is probably the best from a fundamental standpoint but also the most extended.TSL and FSLR could have more upside but i think they are all extremely risky at these levels. sure they can go to 100 but look what WFR did yesterday by guiding "in line";down almost 10 points.when these things get dumped,its with reckless abandonment.
I was a little wound up last night when I posted my previous message. A little frustrated seeing my solar basket in the trash. One of my weaknesses is emotion. Now Im more level headed in my thinking this morning. There is another explanation here. SPWR is in the middle of a breakout and will most likely go to 72.21. It broke through its handle in late March. The price target therefore is Cup/handle thesis 47.98-23.75= 24.23 47.98+23.75= 72.21 Golden number thesis 1.618X45.09= 72.9 WFR is coming off of a 3 year pattern and so there is volatility. In September 2004, WFR was at 7.33 and then the height came in May 2006 at 48.90. 48.9-7.33= 41.57 The low came in July of 2006 at 26.26. 26.26+41.57= 67.83, Actual completion was right at 68.8. Therefore, this last retreat may be a buying opportunity at the following levels: 33% level= 54.94 50% level= 47.04 66% level= 40.99 Cramer came on the television yesterday looking frustrated over WFR, but Eric Bolling looked confident and said buy the dip. Oil traders recognize the above retracement levels instantly. Stock shills just see if a stock is trading at its 52 week high. General market conditions suggest that this will probably retrace to the 33% level. I would wait to see at which level it will bounce and then buy on any bullish trend upwards. Thats because the next target price is 41 point from the above retracements in 6 months. Trina Solar is still in an uptrend. If its able to pivot off of the 20 day moving average at 56 and change then it should be bought. Target price is 102.30. I think First Solar might go higher from here, but my concern is that it looks like a 2000 tech bubble stock. You have one primary trend line and then a secondary trend line. It bounced off the 20 day moving average on Friday which is bullish. First Solar should be bought although there is considerable risk. SolarFun SOLF. If it retests 15 successfully then I believe it will bounce and move higher. Notice how it took a break right at the 10 day EMA. Target price will be 23.5. JASO. JASO mirrors SOLF. My price target is 40.05. ESLR- If it can bounce off the 50 day moving average, then it should be bought. CSIQ- Stay away, junk. So Im revising the basket. The next few trading days will be crucial to see where the basket goes. If all goes as planned then WFR, JASO, SPWR, SOLF, ESLR, FSLR, and TSL should be purchased as a basket. Beware SPWR, once it completes its measured move then it will correct back down just like WFR.
One time, some thirty five years ago, some goombahs sent me to the harness track with pockets stuffed w/cash. Put it on Valero, they said. We drank some beer, ate some artery stuffing food, and I said to my compadre, 'There ain't no way this horse should win this race." My self preservation instincts took over, and we played their money and ours. At the three- quarter pole, this son of a dog was on the rail, four horses back, with two on the outside. It then seem Moses stepped out on the clouds, waved his staff, and lo and behold, whatever that means, the horses parted and made way for our champeen doggie to make his way to the outside, and win going away. These solar stocks are all on the SHO list, Herb came out, like he always does when this kind of stuff runs, and crapped all over them, and you guys are handicapping them like fundies matter. I've lost plenty in past years until I learned their little game. These stocks are marked, and the only way they go up is, buy ins. They might let them move a little, but until the dark side loses it's grip, you'll see plenty of red ink. It's a fixed game, and you're taking the wrong side. You absolutely must play them technically, there were some nice profits in SPWR today, but please, read some of the threads I started. Don't get destroyed. And if you think I'm crazy, like most of you do, and probably will for a few more weeks, look at your P & L. Remember the old line, if you're at a poker table, and you can't spot the sucker, it's you. Good luck. Learn this game quickly. They play mean, real mean.
No. The sun was not shining today. This is where it gets truly fun. We were hit with a rack of down volume at 2:30pm, the entire index. Im not sure why or how. Was it the the Chicago PMI or the pending ISM index? Was it because May 1st is tommorrow? Your guess is as good as mine. I did some researching into the issue. FSLR has violated its trend line. TSL sold off right exactly to the trend line. SOLF did a 2/3 retracement of its cup and hit steep resistance at 14.25. JASO did a 1/2 retracement of its cup, exactly, down to the penny. Either tommorrow will be the pivot point up into the heavens or down into the abyss. This sudden down volume, very scary. No idea where it came from or why. It swept all the indexes. Hopefully the sun will be out tommorrow. I think it will.