Socrates Examines Technical Strategy

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Socrates, Dec 27, 2008.

  1. Now to return to the issue of "pool extraction". Our job as market order speculators is to provide liquidity for hedgers and to pay at least the spread for the noble service we provide to Olympian limit order traders. Collectively in the long term we are not supposed to make any money. And I can confirm from my daily codes running on an emini that this is indeed true. Most days we lose more than the minimum spread of a tick. Some days we are collectively net positive, but in the long haul, collectively we lose. By more than a tick. That's why they call it a tick.

    What does this mean for SCT traders? Well you can bet that if they even trivially skew those stats they will find that the game has changed to frustrate them. I would not venture to hypothesize what the distribution of losers and winners is which keeps us all net losers. Nor how big winner outliers would have to be to provoke limit order traders to retaliate. But they are NOT going to lose money. In general they are not speculators themselves, they only want to make the spred-plus, day in, day out. THEY are the parasites. And YOU are not permitted to join the club.

    But, Socratically speaking, you already knew all that. I'm just asking simple-minded questions.
     
    #21     Dec 27, 2008
  2. How long did it take you to find that picture?
     
    #22     Dec 27, 2008
  3. Lordly, you know exactly who I am. When I am ready for you the flamethrow the thread, I'll let you know. Get serious and join in. This is sanctioned SCT bashing as long as it stays on a high plain. ET's sensitivity to satire and parody is very low. They don't react to it consciously but unconsciously hate it. So play along. Rationally.
     
    #23     Dec 27, 2008
  4. I will be quiet for a while and let this critique sink in to the SCT community. I have proven to my own satisfaction in a top level argument that "pool extraction" is a myth based on wishful thinking. I eagerly await both refutations and better proofs. Remember that nothing I have postulated or asserted is hypothetical or unverifiable. The logical conclusion is that if "pool extraction", the bedrock of SCT, is a fraud, so is all of SCT a fraud.
     
    #24     Dec 27, 2008
  5. Actually, Lordly, I was thinking of the comedian who asked his audience: "Did you ever take a shit so big your clothes fit better?"

    Socrates was noted for his earthy language.

    Stay on point. If I give SCT an enema drawn from the "extraction pool", can I bury it in a thimble?
     
    #25     Dec 27, 2008
  6. It's only a matter of time until Euthyphro (Jack Hershey) comes in to this thread. So sit tight Socrates, just stay away from that hemlock.
     
    #26     Dec 27, 2008
  7. Stefan, very how very cleaver of you! Euthyphro he is! But he will not stoop to debate me. A surrogate will appear. What I wanted was for Neoxx to join us in the role of naif. HE is the youth of the new Athens whom I hope to corrupt. He is the quintessential true believer. Were I as diligent as he I might be trading SCT today.

    One can envision the direction of the refutation by the faithful: SCT does not depend on infinite pool extraction. We will then proceed to the next founding principle, and onward thence to the bitter end. The B-Team might help an old man think through which treasured tenet to demolish next.
     
    #27     Dec 27, 2008
  8. Better tread carefully, Socrates. You were killed because people did not like to have their beliefs shook at their (questionable) base.

    I'm just kidding, grill those fools.
     
    #28     Dec 27, 2008
  9. ehorn

    ehorn

    Your philosophical issues used to be fresh, lively, and compelling, but are waning as of late. Do you believe you will make victims of those whom you question? Moreover, what makes you believe this time should be different than any previous attempt?

    One thing is for certain you have made no argument or enemy worthy of retaliation herein with your speculation and commentary and you surely have brought no unrest against the establishment within these posts. None so worthy of conviction.

    But please feel free to continue in your mothers line of work by "helping others to deliver themselves of their conceptions"
     
    #29     Dec 27, 2008
  10. Ehorn, I presented a reasoned argument based on first principles. An Aristotelian argument to be sure, not a Cartesian one. Is your post the best refutation you can come up with? Calling me stale? Thinking my motives petty?

    To get past ad hominem, let us stipulate that I am a snot, a prick, smug, supercilious, sarcastic, iconoclastic, no respecter of authority, a fool, a clown, a piker, whatever you like. Now look beyond me at the reality of market operation.

    Do you believe that infinite profits are available from "pool extraction"? That Jack's curves will allow you to scale up and own the world in a few trades? Otherwise do you have a suggested limit based on analysis? Do you think it possible that the widespread success of SCT could lead to its demise? Whether the intent of my argument is base or noble is irrelevant.

    The fundamental principle remains: there is a limit to market order profitability in the ensemble. No matter what the method or collection of methods deployed. Otherwise market makers would go broke and there would be no markets made. If you were able to even think about this issue, it might lead you to the conclusion that SCT does not work.

    If it did, there would have been a sea change in market mechanics to thwart it. I think that the vast majority of SCT adherents are like Neoxx. They are fixin' ta get ready ta mebbe eventually start thinkin' about one day startin' ta trade for real.

    A market is not a video game. It is a financial enterprise with rational profitability rules. You ignore them at your peril. You recognize and flow with them to your profit. You can nibble anonymously at the edges, but you will never be the man who broke the bank at Monte Carlo. It is not YOUR game. It is THEIRS. The astonishing hubris of SCT is that it believes otherwise.
     
    #30     Dec 27, 2008