For what it is worth, history has clearly set precedents where antagonism between arab states winds up meaning either a stalemate on production limits OR outright cheating in regards to production limits. Iran and Saudi have both been placated by the destruction of Saddams regime because they both felt it was an opportunity for them to gain influence in Iraq. So they have been happy to shine one another on. However, once Saudi's golden boy ( Osama) declared war on Iraqi Shiites the dynamics changed. Iran immediately hit Israel in order to let the US know that they are still an important factor in this game and don't discount them. Saudi on the other hand has repudiated the Hezbollah/Iranian attack on Israel which gives them the appearance to many Arabs of being the donkeys of the infidels. In this atomosphere in the past, with these tensions oil prices have declined. So as long as the tensions between Iran and Saudi remain sabre rattling I'm looking to short oil very soon.
i agree once this conflict dissolves could be a good shorting opportunity, but set your stops tight because a new conflict is likely around the corner.... hurricane, chavez, a new middle east one. i wonder if the winter might be a better time for shorting.