so you wanna be rich?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by aus_SPIder, Nov 14, 2006.

  1. ok college/uni guys, failed traders, poor people in general here is a simple way to make a little money at your local roulette table and its an edge which i have no problems in disclosing because itll never ever dissapear.

    The system involves playing roulette. ah yes so you say that the game is perfect? the casino always wins? and that u cant gain an edge?

    i am going to reveal an edge to u that i figured out last week. simple statistics really, any comments or system criticisms are appreciated.

    I am assuming that there is always dealer bias on a roulette table. An assumption which is not unrealistic. The question is how can we detect dealer bias?

    the answer is simple. 1st year statistics is all you need.

    ok here it is:


    Go to your local casino, wait for change of dealers at the roulette table. Then take a sample of his/her first 15 numbers.

    Construct a test statistic. Only bet on the sections 1-18 or 19-36 which pay 2-1. U have just under 48% chance of winning thanks to the 0.

    Null hypothesis:
    u = 0.48

    construct a test statistic (X-Xbar)/standdard error.

    Find the critical value under a t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom. The alpha level u choose will be up to your own personal risk preferences.

    if there is a bias then bet on that bias.
  2. Yeah, that'll work. :p

    Don't forget that little pesky 00 (double zero) in American roulette. We are lucky enough to get generous 47.37% odds vs. 48.65% for the European version, referred to above.
  3. Pretty hard to beat a nearly 5% negative edge. And, if there were such a thing as dealer bias, then you can easily make all the money there is. Many have tried and noone has made all the money yet.

  4. ive tried it, only works on new dealers, those that are obviously starting out as they seem to show quite a strong bias. however with more experienced dealers the dealers seem to be able to randomise their spins more.
  5. Try progression betting instead..

    You know, bet 5 and lose, then bet 10, then 20, then 40, etc. And when you win, go back to 5. Every time you win, you make 5 bucks.

    But to confuse them, bet on red and black at the same time; odd and even at the same time; and 1-18 and 19-36 at the same time. And switch your progression around - lose 20 on red, bet 40 on 1-18, etc....

    Take breaks in the progression sometimes too, skip a few, mix it up. I did this in college a few times when I needed cash - spent a whole weekend boozin' and bettin', and go home - 7k was my best.

    Buuuuut, sooner or later, your progression may go beyond the depth of your pockets....:D
  6. Oh yeah, and start small. Think of different money streams here - red can be a stream black can be a stream, odd, even, hi, lo.

    Start with only 2 'streams' until you can get the mental gymnastics DOWN of adding and where you stand on your progression.

    And 0 isn't a problem at all..... You're gonna double up the bets that lose, and with 0, they all lose, so double 'em all....
  7. very inefficient, if you consider the return on capital and risk of ruin+max ddown. doubling up is a very painful exercise if it goes against u :(
  8. The best and only way to win in Roulette is to "clock the wheel"
    P.S. this is no BS.
  9. Isnt that what some mit grads tried one time, with foot actuated software stuff?

    I recall they were busted down.
    Unless, you have a better way, which you'd like to share:)
  10. Yep, it could be painful....

    My experiences, though anecdotal, say otherwise.

    Here were my rules :

    Start with 5k
    bets went like this - 5,10,25,50 100,200,500,1000,2000,5000.
    If 5k lost, go home 'cause the pockets were about empty anyways and couldn't cover the 10k bet

    And in my trips - 7 I think over about a year and a half, I never busted and made ..... maybe 25 k.

    So figure if my typical return was around 3500 on a 5k investment, that's 70% over 2 days.....

    You call that inefficient?

    Maybe someone with better computer skills could figure out the odds here, but in my experience, I sat through probably 5000 spins and never got past the $1000 bet level. Maybe I just got lucky, but it worked for me.
    #10     Nov 16, 2006