Maybe Paulson says "fuck you, House, no bill, no rate cut" and they just let the markets tank. It's not like either he or his boss is going to be sitting in the Big Chair come January.
To spur corporate spending I don't see how they can't cut and cut sooner than later....status quo will continue to bury those who need it most now...I think a cut happens!
yes they already cut the effective so a cut here doesn't seem to make much sense. they know the market will get a boost when some kind of bill passes. the vote was just too damn close, the market is just being short-term oriented here, they will pass something and the market will rally
I would be SURPRISED if we don't see an intermeeting rate cut by tomorrow. I would be shocked actually if the Fed did nothing. This is turning into panic as I type right now. Bernanke will deliver 50 bps at the short seller's temples by tomorrow, if he didn't, it would almost be done purposely to send a message to Congress to see how much the market can bleed without the bailout.
the fed knows the effect of a bill passing will have much bigger impact than a cut. the market is not worried about the cost of credit but its existence. intermeeting cuts are very rare events plus the effective rate is already down, I dont think anybody has ever gotten rich betting on those cuts