you can't argue with anyone long because the market just goes up. i just don't believe what all these billionaire fund managers are saying. the truth is the is no sales growth and no good solid economic data. i watched yesterday someone ask one of these buy buy buy guys about sales growth or good paying jobs. they said it does not matter just look for something with a low PE because there is so much free money in the market that it will run for years. its not logical so i will stay short small and pissed off right now haha this is also proof that bubble ben is a crook or a fool when wall street admits this out loud.
I had high hopes this morning when the equity only ISEE reading was near 236 but then the put buyers came back all afternoon to settle the index around 150 and the overall ISEE back down at 100. Guys, here's the problem. Vol is not getting bid at all. As long as it stays this cheap, when we get a pop in the market, everyone rushes in to buy cheap puts thereby putting in a floor for whatever underlying they are trading. Day after day I see this. Call buyers on the open, put buyers all afternoon after the morning pop, market goes out at the highs. Rinse and repeat.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-15/other-great-rotation-reach-yield-dash-trash This strategy has always worked even when we are not in a QE meltup. But the charts here are interesting.
not one thing you said is wrong but its over 300 points in 6 months on s&p with no sales growth or good econ data improvement. i don't want to sound crazy but i feel like computers are pushing the market up at this point and going out flat. its a trade on faith with no fundamental growth ever. i don't see how this does not blow up at some point. its like the ultimate house of cards. you are 100% right though.
Do some research on the Yen Carry trade... Not sure if you;ve ever read market wizards but your thesis is common Fundamentals VS technicals. I agree with you that there is a large divergence between the real economic reality and what is going on in the market; however, the reason why this market continues to rise is because investors from all around the world are dumping money in our indexs. I'm a bear and i'll admit it and i'd love to see a bear party get started. Its not computers that are running these markets up, its the natural ebb and flow and to be honest no ones selling just yet... Were in mid may now and have just finished a retarded run in this market. I'm not expecting a 10/20percent haircut but i am expecting a pull back from now until next Friday.
i get the idea of a lot of money but there is no sales growth or econ improvement for years. your going to tell me stocks will move up 20% from here without growth just based on extra money. it can happen but i can't understand it in my head haha the Japanese market is getting a big fear from the jgb right now even so that house of cards can turn ugly fast.
Stick to your guns, don't overleverage and one day (hopefully in the not so distant future this short bet will pay off) The catalysts that will send this puppy flying down would be a tiny little rate hike from somewhere in the world (Brazil just did a tiny one) preferably from asia. The japanese bonds are going a lil crazy right now. And... lets not forget how leveraged to the tits ever hedgefund is in these markets. I agree this is a house of cards, hence why i;'ve already started a short position. Its not easy and i feel your pain and how irrational these markets are. If i don't see any real cracks come to the surface by weekend you might want to step aside... I really don't see or understand how the S&P can get to 1700...
i think its going to 1700 but i don't care its a small position and won't hurt me to hold it. if your time limit is friday i would be out now i don't remember seeing a down day all month. i feel the day i give up the next day it breaks down. i wish i never went in it but i did. it was a fundamental trade so i have to give it the room it deserves and i figured it would be a 9 month trade. the market goes up 1% a day so its starting to drive me nuts thats all. if it was only up 1% a month i would not even care haha i probably won't make a fundamental trade in the near future again though.
They are going to annihilate all the "sell in May" people. The market dropped in May the previous 3 years, but it shouldn't be so predictable to happen 4 years in a row. We might get a small pullback this month, but a big pullback probably won't happen until June or later.
Everyone seems to fixated on the S&P but no one is talking about the Russell 2k. We are approaching a nice bit fat round number here at 1000. Just one percent away. As good as any other level to watch. Btw, this index bottomed at 339 I believe in 2009. A triple off the lows! Fwiw, ISEE is on alert today.