So what was wrong with GDP?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hajimow, Jul 30, 2010.

  1. hajimow


    I found it OK towards good (things are improving). Combined with consumer index and other data, we should have a green day. So what is this early sell pressure about? Does the market know what to do? Market was supposed to be always right but I guess not.
  2. Improving? It was lower than 1st QTR revised numbers. You may need to review your proaganda source.
  3. Lower than expected.
  4. hajimow


    Lower than expected or lower than 1st Q?
    Remember they revised 1Q number by 1 point. From 0.8 to 1.8. It shows how crappy these numbers are created. Error of 1 point in 0.8 is over 125% error !!. I see things are improving in individual companies results and their next Q outlook. Don't trust those numbers. Look around yourself. Things are improving. They are not getting worse.
  5. Bad things:
    1) Revisions to previous qtrs (apart from Q1-2010) are all negative
    2) Personal savings rate up a lot (6.2%, I think)
    3) Personal consumption up a lot less than expected
    4) Huge contribution from increase in inventories (1.1%)
    5) Net exports highly negative contribution, due to a massive rise in imports (28.8%) that completely overwhelmed the rise in exports (10.3%)

    Good things:
    1) Gross private investment rose a lot
    2) Residential investment rose, which is a big positive surprise, given the state of the the housing mkt
  6. hajimow


    Thanks. Great list. Adding #2 and #3 in bad things makes it neutral. Personal consumption is up which is good but if it was less than expected, at least we know that the money is there (in consumer's bank accounts) and if they feel like it , they will spend more. Imagine if #2 was down and number 3 was also down. Then we had a problem but not that much now.
  7. Markets are "driven" by speculation, not by fundamentals, in the shorter-term. :eek: :(
  8. Depends on where you are looking. We are fucked in MANY areas. You must not see those areas.

    Well, with your news sources, that is understandable.

    Keep the rosie colored glasses on, all is well!

  9. gucci


    Nice calls guys. The one from Russia is really nailing it.
  10. Who is "the one from Russia"?
    #10     Jul 30, 2010